The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen
8:15 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures rose to 7070.50 this morning, having met a primary Fibonacci relationship at 7060.00. The Cycle Top is at 7095.00, so there is room to rise further in the Cycles Model. SPX has entered the two-week turn window that allows a significant reversal, so we must stay on the alert. The Model is organic and not mechanical, so it may follow guidelines that may be influenced by such things as war, weather or taxes. All of those influencers may presently be at work. Note that the January 28 high was a rogue Wave B high and not a Primary Cycle high. This has fooled many, including myself, but it did not meet a Cycle imperative, that it must reach the Cycle Top resistance to end a Primary Cycle. That is where we are presently.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6985.00. Long gamma may begin above 7000.00 while short gamma resides beneath 6975.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “Stocks are pushing higher again on the same old regurgitated news: namely speculation that a deal to end the war between the US and Iran is getting closer, the same exact “speculation” that has pushed the Nasdaq higher for what will now be 13 days in a row, and the same speculation that may keep pushing stocks even higher until the reality of no ceasefire sends risk plunging in a few days.”
NDX futures have reached a high of 26490.90 this morning, exceeding its Cycle Top at 26387.00. Once exceeded, the Cycle Top may become temporary support. Once broken, however, the Cycle Top may offer a sell signal after the reversal. Note that the participation in the rally has not broadened, leaving a very thin 12 companies supporting the entire index. Today’s options expiration may remove a lot of support for the rally.
The premarket VIX has dropped to 17.35 this morning, possibly completing the final push to the bottom of the Cycle. It has reached peak complacency. A rise above the mid-Cycle support/resistance at 18.30 allows a buy signal.
USD probed down to 97.63 this morning, making its Master Cycle low. There may be a further pressing of the low, as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is at 97.49. Today may be a fitting low, as the Cycles Model implies an explosion of strength in the next week. Dollar shorts may be rejoicing, but the cycles Model indicates three different levels of strength may be imminent in the USD.
Bitcoin extended its probe this morning toward a possible Fibonacci level at 78500.00. Should it exceed that level, it may proceed higher to the mid-Cycle resistance at 84413.00. Yesterday I reported that bitcoin may have made an early Master Cycle high, but that was not to be. The Cycles Model offers anther possible week of rally before a reversal may be made.
Crude oil may have made its master Cycle low at 83.03 this morning, while the 52-day Moving Average registers at 83.23. Should that be so, the Cycles Model offers a possible month of rally with particular strength over the next two weeks.
Gold may have made its Master Cycle high this morning at 4912.04. The Cycles Model calls for a strong reversal in the next week, with a potential decline over the next month. An appropriate target may be near 3800.00.