The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen
3:17 pm
The 2-hour chart gives us some granularity for today’s price action. There may be one more final probe higher that may reach a fractal relationship target of 7060.00 and the end of the current Master Cycle. What is noteworthy is that the NDX has finally exceeded its October 29 high at 26182.00 while the Industrials may not exceed its February 10 high at 50512.79.
8:40 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures rose to 6977.00 this morning as The end of the master Cycle approaches. SPX is now in a reversal window that may activate at any time. While Commercial Traders are jumping in with both feet, the buyback window went dark, as earnings season has begun. The squeeze has done its job. Now we wait for investors to come back inot the market. SPX is approaching its all-time high, it has not exceeded it. Should it do so, the celebration may be brief, as the new Master Cycle shows a decline to the end of June.
Today’s options chain shows Max pain at 6930.00. Long gamma resided above 6950.00 while short gamma strengthens beneath 6900.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are flat following yesterday’s rally as market awaits news on the Iran war resolution and as we traverse earnings season.”
VIX may be completing its Master Cycle low today, as it has declined to 17.50 thus far. The reversal may be rather sharp, with a surge of strength due this weekend. VIX customarily proceeds the SPX in its reversal, so a reversal in the VIX may be a warning to equity investors.
The April 22 VIX options chain shows Max Pain at 17.00. Short gamma resides at 16.00, while long gamma kicks in above 18.00.
The US 10-year bond yield is consolidating above Intermediate support at 42.48. The cycles Model anticipates an imminent increase in bond volatility which may drive yields temporarily lower in anticipation of a reversal back to trend, as volatility may work in both directions. The 52-day Moving Average at 42.11 may offer support for a reversal.
The USD index may b consolidating, but may have a final probe lower to complete the corrective phase. A possible target may be near 97.50, the 61.8% Fibonacci reversal level, at which point a reversal may begin.
Bitcoin may have reversed from its Master Cycle high at 76121.00 yesterday. This is an early reversal, but within normal bounds. I would be hesitant to trade bitcoin until a clear directional move is made. Support may be found at the Intermediate level at 70261.00.
Crude oil declined to 87.08, then bounced to test its cycle Top resistance at 93.27 this morning. The test failed, sending crude lower. The next support level may be the 52-day Moving Average currently at 82.21 in time for a Master cycle low. That may create a false flag, as crude oil may be trading higher by early next week.
Gold is consolidating beneath its master Cycle high it made on Monday. Current resistance is at the Intermediate level at 4856.23. The direction may be down for the next two weeks as a Master Cycle low may be made at the end of the month near 3800.00.