The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen
11:06 am
BKX may have completed its Master Cycle this morning at 167.27. The trendline at 165.00, which may have acted as a support in the past week, may now offer the initial sell signal for the decline. The Cycles Model offers a possible three week decline that may bring a panic to the banking system.
ZeroHedge remarks, “Something cracked in private credit this month, and the men who manage systemic risk for a living are saying so.”
ZeroHedge reports, “One day after Goldman Sachs reported its highest profit in 5 years (despite an ugly miss in FICC revenues), this morning JPMorgan impressed with just as solid results, when it reported that its Q1 profits rose 13% as the bank benefited from soaring market volatility and frantic trading amid the war with Iran and the US military operation in Venezuela.”
8:30 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures rose to 6910.60 thus far, as the correction winds down. The correction has all the earmarks of a new push higher, mainly due to the fact that the decline was relatively shallow 9.8% decline, a rather lower-than average sell-off for the SPX. However, the main thesis is that the decline may be due to resume with the 1987 trendline in its sights at 6200.00. A true bear market may develop beneath that level. Risk has changed from selling to chasing, making the market dangerous. A sell signal ma\y be obtained from a decline beneath the 52-day Moving average at 6768.62.
Today’s otions chain shows Max Pain at 6830.00. Long gamma may begin above 6840.00 while short gamma strengthened beneath 6825.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures, and global stocks rise while oil slides on a Reuters report that negotiating teams from the US and Iran could return to Pakistan later this week to resume negotiations to end the war in the Gulf, days after the first peace talks ended without a breakthrough, with chatter from Pakistani media that Trump is said to be in attendance. ”
Today’s premarket VIX declined to 17.79 this morning, which may have completed the correction. The Cycles Model suggests the VIX may be due to be energized by the weekend.
Tomorrow’s (monthly) VIX options chain shows Max Pain at 21.50. Short gamma is heavily loaded from 14.00 to 21.00. Long gamma may begin at 22 and is well populated to 100.00.
The US 10-year bond yield appears to be in consolidation, leaning toward venturing lower by the end of the week. The normal correction time is three weeks, which may be completed by Friday. The 52-day Moving average may be its target at 42.11.
USD may be completing its Master Cycle with today’s low at 97.98. The USD Cycle has been just days ahead of the TNX Cycle,, suggesting something may be afoot that signals rising risk. A rise above the 52-day Moving Average at 98.65 may signal rising tension in the Middle East.
Bitcoin rose to 75644.00 thus far, possibly completing its two-month consolidation. The target for this probe may be near 76000.00. Should it go higher, it may mean an end to the current Master Cycle may be imminent.
Gold may be consolidating beneath its Master Cycle high made yesterday. The next three weeks are fraught with risk for gold, as a probable target may be near 3800.00. The reason? Lower priced crude may encourage liquidation of precious metals in favor of oil.
Crude oil made a new low this morning at 92.21, after making a possible Master Cycle high on April 7 at 117.63. It declined beneath the Cycle Top support at 92.84. The next possible support for a bounce may be at the 52-day Moving Average at 81.63. While the 52-day may be a stopper, its could decline even further, to the mid-Cycle support currently at 66.05.
Zerohedge observes, “An unusually large number of crude oil tankers on the open seas has the American Gulf coast as a destination as the ships are redirected to load cargoes bound for markets around the world already experiencing shortages.”