Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen
9:50 am
The Banking Index may be putting the finishing touches on its retracement and an end to the current Master Cycle. There may be a final probe to the 52-day Moving Average at 160.79 before a reversal. However, the reversal may be confirmed beneath the mid-Cycle support at 154.65.
8:00 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures consolidated within Thursday’s trading range as the correction continues. The Cycles Model offers short-term resistance at 6638.00-6650.00, while the mid-Cycle line at 6685.60 may offer the ultimate resistance to the bounce. The correction may not be likely to cross the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation at 6710.00. The prior Master Cycle took 61 days from top (7002.28) to bottom (6316.91). The current Master Cycle decline may last to the end of April.
Today’s options chain suggests max Pain may be at 6515.00. Long gamma rests above 6525.00 while short gamma becomes strong beneath 6500.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “US stock futures rose, but were off session highs (and lows) and crude oil dipped as the bipolar market focused its attention on a report of a push to secure a potential ceasefire in the war in Iran, following a reversal in those exact same hopes late last week.”
Premarket VIX rose to 25.14 this morning as it consolidated beneath the Cycle Top at 25.46. Rising above the Cycle Top reconfirms the buy signal. A breakout above the neckline at 35.30 puts the Head & Shoulders formation into motion.
The April 8 options chain shows Max Pain at 22.00. Short gamma resides between 20.00-23.00. ong gamma becomes strong above 25.00 and extends to 40.00.
The US 10-year bond yield may be in a consolidation that may extend down to the trendline at 42.00 this week, giving risk assets a temporary green light. Once accomplished, it may renew its rally with considerable vigor. Trending strength may return by the weekend to create a breakout above the neckline.
The USD met resistance near the Cycle Top this morning and may decline to support over the next week or so. While Intermediate support lies at 99.13, the 52-day Moving Average at 98.54 may be a more likely target for this pullback. Once accomplished, the USD may be ready to break out above the Head & shoulders neckline at 100.64.
Bitcoin rose above Intermediate resistance at 69384.58 this morning, but may have completed a retracement at that resistance. If so, bitcoin may resume its decline by crossing beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 68675.00.
Crude oil rose to 115.37 over the weekend, but may have begun to pull back. Should that be so, oil may decline over the next week or so. A possible support for the correction may be the 52-day Moving Average at 76.87.
Gold continues to consolidate beneath last week’s high at 4800.00. A push to the 52-day Moving Average at 4920.00-4950.00 may end the current Master Cycle in the next few days.