The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen
2:45 pm
SPX may have begun a bounce to retest the trendline at 6710.00, very near a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (of this decline) at 6713.00. The retracement may not last, once it has reached its goal.
Addendum: SPX may go even lower, possibly to 6600.00 this afternoon.
7:45 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures declined beneath the mid-Cycle support at 6651.00 to 6636.90 before bouncing to 6707.50, under the Head & Shoulders neckline at 6710.00. Retail investors are not buying the dip, leaving yesterday’s attempt at a short squeeze empty handed. Having possibly broken the next layer of support, there is a strong likelihood of a further decline to the Head & Shoulders target by next week. Seasonality tells us that we may see a trough in March. However, the Cycles Model suggests a possible further decline into early April.
Today’s options chain shows Mac Pain at 6750.00. Long gamma dominates above 6775.00 while short gamma remains strong beneath 6700.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “US stock futures rebounded from their overnight selloff, and were trading near session highs after three days of losses on Wall Street as Brent slipped below $100 a barrel and investors waited to see if the war in the Middle East would escalate further.”
Premarket VIX pushed up to 28.47, testing the lower Head & Shoulders neckline overnight, then pulled back. Commentators are looking for a peak in the VIX this month. However, VIX remains on a buy signal that may prevail until mid-April. The double Head & Shoulders formations appear to be a product of the choppy market this year.
The March 18 (monthly) options chain shows Max Pain at 21.00, where dealers may have the least payout. Short gamma runs heavy between 15.00 and 21.00. Long gamma picks up at 22.00 and shows large investor presence every 5 points up to 80.00.
TNX broke through its trendline yesterday. This morning it is pulling back, testing new found support. The Cycles Model calls for an increase of trending strength over the weekend, with possible sustained strength during the following week.
ZeroHedge reports, “After two mixed coupon auctions this week, including a subpar 3Y and a strong 10Y, moments ago the Treasury concluded the week’s coupon issuance when it sold $22BN in 30Y bonds in another solid auction.”
USD may have made its Master Cycle high this morning at 100.30 on day 255 of its Master Cycle. This may not be confirmed until next week. Should that be so, a month-long retracement may follow, possibly taking the USD to its Cycle Bottom at 96.58. An alternative view suggests that, if the retracement remains (shallow) above trendline support or the 200-dy Moving Average at 98.36, it may double back, making new highs.
Bitcoin surged to its 52-day Moving Average at 72789.00 this morning. Should it continue to rally above the March 4 high at 74084.00, the retracement may go higher. The sideways consolidation must resolve.
Silver made a new overnight low at 81.52, then bounced to the 52-day Moving Average at 85.77, remaining beneath it. The decline may resume as trending (declining) strength returns.
Gold has made a new low today at 5023.51 as it resumes its decline. A likely target may be the mid-Cycle support, currently at 4076.50. The Cycles Model allows up to approximately three more weeks to a possible reversal. Despite declining equities, gold isn’t acting like the hedge it has been claimed to be.