The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
7:45 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures rose to 6516.20this morning, then settled back near 6500.00, leaving Friday’s all-time high intact. The trendline is near 6475.00, beneath which a possible sell signal lurks. The Cycles Model suggests a possible decline to the end of the month. Should that be so, the April 7 bottom is a likely target. Institutions are on the sidelines to the end of the quarter while hedge funds are reducing leverage. Commercials and individual investors may be maxed out at this level. The breakaway decline may gain strength by the end of the week. A possible panic Cycle may emerge the week of the 22nd.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6485.00. Long gamma exists above 6500.00. Short gamma lies beneath 6450.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are higher led by Tech as expectations of Fed rate cuts continued to drive gains, while Treasuries eased after a rally that pushed global bonds into bull-market territory ahead of what is set to be another huge negative benchmark revision to payrolls. As of 8:30am S&P futures are 0.1% higher, while Nasdaq futures gain 0.2% as Mag7 stocks see a muted bid with AVGO/NVDA leading Semis higher. Both Cyclicals and Defensives have caught a bid with Materials buoyed by the Anglo / Teck deal. The yield curve is bear steepening as 10Y yield rise by 2bps to 4.07%; the dollar slid for a third day, with the yen driving advances among major currencies on renewed signals of policy tightening by the Bank of Japan. Commodities are higher with broad-based strength across all 3 complex but notable increases in crude, natgas, coffee, and iron. Today’s macro data focus is on the NFP revision with BBG survey seeing a 700k negative revision to payrolls and the modest beat in the NFIB Small Business Optimism (100.8, vs Exp. 100.5) where the Hiring sub-index has been a leading indicator for future NFP prints.”
VIX futures are consolidating beneath the 50-day Moving Average at 16.07. A good place to accumulate shares.
Tomorrow’s options chain shows short gamma strongly beneath 14.00 while long gamma kicks in above 15,00. Large investors are starting to nibble at long positions in the 40.00-50.00 range.
10-year Treasury futures are bouncing from yesterday’s low, but may be held down at the Cycle bottom at 40.94. The Cycles Model suggests the decline may exceed the April 4 low. Money flowing into bonds may accelerate over the next three weeks.
Gold futures hit a new all-time high at 3698.52 in the overnight market. The CME (cash market) may be struggling near 3600.00 at the same time. Round numbers give a high resistance quotient and may be the end of the rally in gold, just as sentiment and participation reach a fever pitch.