The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
7:30 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures eased down to 6477.10 in the overnight session thus far. Support lies at 6400.00, beneath which a sell signal may arise. The terminus of the current Master Cycle is now a week overdue and the SPX has made an all-time high at 6508.23 yesterday, meeting its primary objective. Today is not a day to go long as stocks remain overbought and fragility increases.
Today’s end-of-the-month options chain shows Max Pain at a highly contested 6475.00. Long gamma may gains ascendancy at 6500.00 while short gamma rules beneath 6450.00.
VIX futures hovered above yesterday’s proposed Master Cycle low at 14.12. The turn window may be closing fast, as the Master Cycle is a week overdue. As VIX tumbles to its 2025 low, speculators are at record short positions. This may not end well for the shorts as September is the worst month of the year, seasonality-wise.
The September 3 options chain shows massive shorts between 14.00 and 15.00. Longs take possession at 17.00, but do not have the same conviction as the shorts.
TNX futures rose to 42.30 this morning after bouncing from the lower trendline of the Triangle formation at 42.03. Once the bounce is complete, it may continue its decline to the Cycle Bottom at 40.98, or possibly lower.
ZeroHedge remarks, “A stellar 2Y, a solid 5Y and a dismal 7Y auction: that about sums up this week’s coupon issuance.
Moments ago, the US treasury completed the week’s final auction when it sold $44 billion in 7Y paper in what was an ugly auction.
Starting at the top, the high yield was 3.925%, the first sub-4% coupon auction since last September. It also tailed the When Issued 3.922% by 0.3bps, the first tail since April and quite a reversal to last month’s record-matching stop through.”
Bitcoin may be completing its final probe to its Cycle low in the next few days. Should that be so, a new all-time high awaits investors as it rallies through the month of September.
GOLD futures have eased down in a consolidation move prior to a final thrust higher, ending the current Master Cycle. It is likely to stage a false breakout, attracting more speculators. However, gold next move may be a 400-point decline, flushing’s out the speculators.