The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen”
10:42 am
SPX may attempt a higher retacement…to Intermediate resistance at 6643.16.
10:19 am
The Ag index may have bounced from Intermediate support at 360.07 yesterday. If so, it may be completing its consolidation and preparing for a breakout above its Head & Shoulders neckline at 377.00. The Cycles Model supports this view as it proposes a burst of trending energy this weekend. The war in the Middle East is having a knock-on effect on our farmers that has been unnoticed until recently.
TheEpochTimes comments, “Sometimes it is just a mood. Sometimes it’s the store or the product. Regardless, I can hardly go to the grocery store these days without a sense of shock at how much I’m spending even while buying as little as possible.
Money-saving tactics—choosing cheaper venues, substituting products, just eating less—don’t seem to work anymore.”
8:15 am
SPX futures declined to a morning low at 6469.40 thus far. The next phase of the decline may have begun, as all the stock indices have stopped cold at key resistance. As mentioned before, the potential target may be the Cycle Bottom at 6264.31 or the 1987 trendline near 6200.00. That is based on my primary fractal design. The alternate design may offer a much lower target, possibly the April 2025 low. The reason for this observation is that the new Master Cycle (decline) may extend to the end of April.
401(k) plans are under stress. ZeroHedge remarks, “Another light on America’s economic dashboard is blinking red, as money-pinched workers are cutting their 401k contribution rates. The news follows our earlier report on hardship withdrawals from the cornerstone retirement savings accounts hitting a record high. Critically, these numbers don’t reflect what workers are doing right now — amid war-driven gas price-hikes and worries about the economy.”
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain a t6580.00. Long gamma may begin above 6590.00 while short gamma strengthens beneath 6540.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “Global risk assets, including US equity futures and global markets, as well as Treasuries and precious metals, tumbled as oil soared with Brent hitting $110 this morning after Trump’s late Wednesday speech refused to pivot and dashed hopes that the Hormuz Strait would reopen soon and the war in the Middle East is nearing a swift resolution.”
The premarket VIX rose to 27.859 this morning, above the Cycle To support/resistance at 25.37. The VIX remains on a long-term buy signal despite the wide swings. The current Master Cycle runs until mid-April.
The April 8 VIX options chain shows short gamma running between 20.00 and 23.00. Long gamma begins at 24.00 and shows institutional participation starting at 25.00 and running every 5 points to 55.00.
TNX continued its bounce from support at 43.00. Resistance lies at the Cycle Top at 44.16 which may bring TNX back down over the next several days, as the Cycles Model allows some consolidation during that time. However, the trend is higher and may be strengthened by a breakout above the neckline of the proposed Head & Shoulders formation.
USD is bouncing back toward the Cycle Top resistance at 100.38. Should it break through the Cycle Top and the neckline at 100.60, it may complete its fractal near 102.00 by mid-April. That action may offer a stronger Head & Shoulders platform from which the USD may rally.
Bitcoin resumed its decline after testing the 52-day Moving Average at 68619.00 yesterday. Support may be found near 62000.00 which may offer another bounce over the weekend. However, the secular trend is down, as any bounce may be met with more selling.
Crude oil ramped to 113.93 in the overnight market, adding pressure to major economies that are dependent on oil. The irony is that crude may decline from here, causing more confusion about the trend.
ZeroHedge summarizes,
- Oil prices surge after no mention of ceasefire while vowing to keep hitting Iran ‘extremely hard’ in Wed. night Trump speech. Surge in tit-for-tat overnight strikes.
- US intelligence assessments say Iran is not ready to negotiate given it believes it has the strategic upper-hand, and doesn’t believe Trump is ‘serious’ about talks: NYT
Gold rose to 4825.00 overnight, then may have run out of energy as it approached the 52-day Moving Average at 4927.32. It then declined to 4581.12 this morning. Central banks may be forced to sell gold to buy oil. Should that be so, gold may quickly decline beneath 4000.00.