The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
7:40 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures rose to 6449.80 this morning, failing to close the gap left at Friday’s close at 6460.00. SPX may be due for a decline to test the 50-day Moving Average at 6311.81 today. What follows may be observed closely to judge the reaction to that support by the bulls. Should that support crumble, investors may be in for a wild September. The Cycles Model calls for a month-long decline that may challenge the April 7 low.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6405.00. Long gamma rules above 6450.00 while short gamma resides beneath 6375.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are higher following a two-day slide, led by Tech with a favorable court ruling boosting GOOG (+5.7% pre-mkt) and lifting the Mag7 group. As of 8:00am ET S&P futures are up 0.5%, recovering most of yesterday’s losses; while Nasdaq 100 futs add 0.7%. In premarket trading, Mag7 names are all higher with AAPL (+2.9%) and TSLA (+1.7%) the notable standouts alongside GOOG. Cyclicals are poised to outperform as the yield curve bear steepens. In Europe, the Estoxx 50 is up by almost 1%, led by info tech and industrials sectors. Longer duration bonds are seeing a global sell-off (30Y JGBs +7bp, 30Y Gilts +6bp) while US is outperforming (30Y +2bp); underperformance is driven by global budget concerns (these come and go), which have sent gold is higher for the 7th consecutive session, adding ~5% in that time. USD is weaker and commodities are mixed. WTI crude futures fall 1.7% to near $64.50 after a report said that OPEC+ is considering another supply boost for October at this weekend’s meeting. Today’s data focus is on JOLTS, Durable/Cap Goods, Beige Book, and consumer-sector earnings to gain clarity on the consumer.”
VIX futures remained elevated above the 50-day moving Average at 16.36 this morning. Today is options expiration and a hefty number of shorts may be wiped out, should it stay above the 50-day.
The September 10 options chain shows lingering short gamma at 15.00, but long gamma may be rising above 16.00. Long interest may strengthen above 20.00.
TNX has pulled back from a test of the 50-day Moving Average at 43.18. Should it break through, the next resistance may be the trendline and mid-Cycle resistance at 43.86. The Cycles Model calls for rising rates through the end of September which may be troublesome for the mortgage market.
ZeroHedge observes, “Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the Washington Examiner on Labor Day that the Trump administration may declare a national housing emergency in the coming months to address the affordability crisis. Bessent’s comments come just ahead of an expected interest-rate cut cycle, underscoring the administration’s urgent effort to address the affordability crisis, which is set to be one of the key topics ahead of the 2026 midterms.”
USD futures remain above the 50-day Moving Average at 98.03 this morning, on a possible buy signal.
Bitcoin is consolidating near the 100-day Moving Average at 111751.00. Monday’s reversal may have marked the revival of the uptrend in Bitcoin. The Cycles Model suggests the uptrend may endure into early October.
Gold futures may be trading near their all-time high this morning as the current Master Cycle may be wrapping up. Futures have topped out at 3621.40 thus far, nearing the Cycle Top resistance. The cash market may not be able to reach that resistance.