The Practical Investor

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

10:15 am

SPX has gapped down at the open and bounced at a potential Head & Shoulders neckline,  testing the 52-day Moving Average at 6705.00.  Should resistance hold, SPX may then resume its decline beneath the neckline with knock-on consequences.  A secondary resistance may be the trendline at 6775.00.

10:30 am

NDX is also bouncing from a potential Head & Shoulders formation.  Stay alert for a decline beneath the trendline at 24535.00.  The down-sloped neckline may be more bearish.

7:45 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures have gapped down beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 6690.50, plummeting to 6664.00 thus far.  SPX is on a confirmed sell signal since crossing the 7-month trendline yesterday.  Thus far, the decline has been orderly.  However, a decline beneath the November 7 low at 6631.44 opens the volatility spigots.  Wall Street must defend that level.  Should the breakdown occur, the minimum target may be near 6350.00.  Retail investors are heavily long while street gamma is negative.  A dangerous combination.  The Cycles Model warns that trending strength may grow into Friday’s monthly options expiration.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6775.00.  Long gamma strengthens above 6800.00.  Short gamma dominates beneath 6750.00, with heavy reinforcements every 25 points lower.

ZeroHedge reports, “It’s ugly out there. Futs are sharply lower on doubts about whether the Fed will cut interest rates again in December, as fear deepens about stretched AI valuations and the debt used to fund them.”

VIX futures vaulted to 22.63, short of a breakout above the November 7 high.  Upside momentum appears to strengthen this week as panic may set in.  The Cycles Model implies a continued rise in volatility to late December.

The November 19 options chain shows Max Pain at 20.00.  Short gamma is heavily laden from 15.00 to 19.50.  Long gamma begins at 22..00 and strengthens at 25.00 with institutional presence every 25 points above.

TNX has declined beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 40.79, on its way to a Trading Cycle low early next week.  It remains relatively calm until monthly options expiration on Friday.  From that point on, volatility may erupt into the first half of December.

ZeroHedge reports, “After yesterday’s mediocre, tailing 10Y auction, and with yields pushing higher today, prospects for the week’s final coupon auction, today’s $25BN in 30Y bonds, were not too exciting. Which is a good thing because the just concluded final refunding auction was quite disappointing.”

USD is testing Intermediate support at 98.98 as it descends into a Trading Cycle low early next week.  The 52-day Moving Average at 98.52 is a likely target, but may go lower.  Subsequently, a new surge higher, with growing strength, may emerge and continue to the first week of December.

Bitcoin has broken down beneath the Head & Shoulders neckline at 98932.00 with considerable force.  The formation has been activated.  However, a bounce may arise, testing the neckline before trending lower.  Bitcoin may be another proxy for market liquidity as there is nothing backing it but the sentiment of investors with extra cash or people wishing to seamlessly cross national boundaries.  China may have outlawed the use of bitcoin and many European countries are considering banning it, which may be cutting off cross-boundary liquidity.

BKX has broken through the 52-day Moving Average at 150.07 this morning, placing it on a sell signal.  The banking index has been heavily defended until November 12, stretching out the Master Cycle in double overtime.  That support may give out at the end of November with a quadropoly indicated panic Cycle developing in December.

Gold futures declined to 4033.09, challenging the Cycle Top at 4133.00 and Intermediate support at 4045.88, making a Trading Cycle low that may be complete this weekend.  Keep in mind that the retracement may go to the 52-day Moving Average at 3914.67 before reversing higher.  These washouts may test the gumption of gold investors as they may be unable to withstand the shakeout.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

12:30 am

SPX has ;reached the trendline and Intermediate support at 6754.30 and may be ready to bounce.  A partial retracement may develop throughout the afternoon, although selling pressure remains.  The next bounce may be the 52-day Moving Average at 6699.00.  SPX may be on an aggressive sell signal which may be confirmed beneath 6700.00.  The tumble in equity markets is being led by the Nasdaq, specifically the Mega-Caps.

7:50 am

Good Morning!

Note:  We are facing a planned power outage this morning.  The morning report may be abbreviated.

SPX futures declined to 6828.60 after reaching its potential retracement limit.  The Retracement shows a 9-point fractal, which suggests completion.  Nearest support lies at 6744.51, where a sell signal may be acted upon.  The government shutdown took 43 days and is likely to be repeated in January with more damaging results.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are slightly lower as the market sells the news that the US government has finally reopened, and as traders now seek to identify a near-term catalyst before NVDA’s Nov 19 earnings release while the data vacuum is likely to persist for at least several days.”

VIX futures rose above the 52-day and trendline to 18.06 this morning.  The uptrend is not broken, allowing trending strength to grow over the next week.  A strong panic Cycle may develop around monthly options expiration next week.

ZeroHedge remarks, “We’ll begin with the famous quote from economist John Maynard Keynes: “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

It’s a reminder that even the smartest traders in the room, the ones who’ve built entire careers calling bubbles and shorting tops, can be steamrolled when markets detach from reality.”

USD futures continue to decline as it retraces to support at the Intermediate level at 98.95.  The 52-day Moving Average is at 98.50 as an alternate target.  The retracement may be finished by the weekend.

TNX is consolidating beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 40.95.  It is making a Trading Cycle (minor) low before moving higher by next week.  Money may be moving out of stocks to treasuries as a traditional safe haven.  However it may not last, as the Cycles Model sugests higher 10-year rates to mid-December.

Bitcoin has resumed its decline toward the Head & Shoulders neckline.  Its anticipated low may occur in the last week of November.  Should it bounce at the neckline, we may see another bounce.  However, once beneath the neckline, any bounce may be a test of the neckline.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:40 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 6876.80 this morning, nearing a natural limit on retracements.  Comparison of past declines and recoveries may not be helpful for multiple reasons.  First is the rule of alternation.  All of the prior declines that were compared to resulted in a full recovery.  There is an alternative.  Second, the market may rhyme, but it does not repeat.  Third, five and a half years of dips, then recoveries have produced a Pavlovian reaction in investors.  The market doesn’t always recover, which may leave the majority on the wrong side.  This is a time to be skeptical, since retracements may rise up to (but not above) the prior high, trapping the buy-the-dip crowd should an unexpected reversal prior to a full recovery occur.  The Cycles Model leaves us with a potential double reversal that may go higher, but the fractal thus far leaves room for a reversal.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6830.00.  Long gamma may prevail above 6850.00 while short gamma rules beneath 6800.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are higher as the US takes another step to reopen with a House vote (expected to pass early evening on Wednesday, with Trump’s approval. As of 8:15am, S&P futures are 0.4% higher with the mood buoyed by expectations of an imminent end to the government shutdown and a Fed rate cut next month.”

VIX futures declined to a morning low at 17.10 before a bounce, testing the 52-day Moving Average.    VIX may have established its uptrend, albeit sluggishly.  Today’s action may be a Trading Cycle low, with trending strength on a rebound next week.  Today is weekly options expiration with Max Pain near 20.00.

The November 19 options chain shows Max Pain at 20.00.  Short gamma shows puts are heavily laden between 15.00 and 18.00.  Calls are coming alive at 22.00 and show heavy institutional involvement from 25.00 to 100.00.

TNX has dipped beneath its 52-day Moving Average at 40.85.  The Cycles Model shows a potential trading Cycle low this weekend, with recovery as the month progresses.  This may indicate a preference for Treasuries over equities, as the traditional search for a safe haven may develop.  The Cycles Model suggests a decline to the Cycle Bottom at 39.72 over the next week or so.

USD futures are consolidating at the mid-Cycle support at 99.61.  USD is in a correction that may revisit the 52-day Moving Average at 98.49 in the next week.  The Cycles Model indicates the rally may resume to the end of November.

Bitcoin may be consolidating after a steep decline.  The cycles Model indicates a potential resumption of the decline by early next week.  The current Master Cycle ends in two weeks.  The question is, will the decline venture beneath the Head & Shoulders neckline or stay above with another bounce?

Gold futures are consolidating above the Cycle Top support at 4109.13 this morning.  Trending strength may return next week with the rally resuming to mid-December.

The Ag index may be due for a short-term correction down to the 52-day Moving Average at 357.68.  Should it bounce at that level, the Cycles Model infers a resumption of the rally with strength next week.  The current Master Cycle may last to late December.

TheEpochTimes comments, “President Trump is boldly facing the problem of high meat prices but also dealing with the financial strains on farmers themselves. The issue is reconciling the two. Lower prices are great for consumers but also add to the financial problems of small farmers. Gradually, Trump has come to the conclusion that the real bottleneck is with meatpackers themselves, which is one of the oldest corporate monopolies in U.S. history.”

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:50 am

Good Morning!

After having overshot its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 6810.41 SPX futures may now be testing that level.  Yesterday’s rally appeared to be mostly short-covering, which may now be exhausted.  Intermediate support and the trendline lie at 6731.13 while the 52-day Moving Average lies at 6670.00.  The top view is that the decline may resume today, followed by the violation of the aforementioned supports.  Should that happen, the next phase of the decline may last a month or more.  Meanwhile, Wall Street labels the past two weeks as a “wobble” that can be ignored, calling for a Santa Rally to the end of the year.  Whether a wobble or something more bearish, watch the trendline for support or failure.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6810.00.  Long gamma may rise above 6830.00 while short gamma resides beneath 6780.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are weaker following the best day for the S&P500 in almost a month and the Nasdaq’s best day since late May. The market frontran the catalyst: late on Monday the Senate passed its funding bill, and the House is expected to vote on Weds, as it always eventually does, especially since it has Trump’s full support.”

VIX futures rose to 18.01 thus far this morning.  VIX is due for a bounce.  However, it may be hampered by overhead resistance at the mid-Cycle  at 19.64.  Clearing that resistance allows the VIX to resume its rally.

YNX has bounced above the 52-day Moving Average at 40.88 this morning.  While acting positively, it may still decline beneath the 52-day over the next two weeks.  Bond volatility is on its first uptick since May, making equities investors uneasy.  Easing beneath the 52-day may ease investors’ trepidations.  However, it may not last.

USD futures may be testing the Intermediate support at 98.90 this morning.  The Cycles Model indicates the rally may resume in the next week.  A breakout above the mid-cycle resistance at 100.17 may propel the USD to its Cycle Top at 104.24 by the end of the month.

Bitcoin may have started its next leg down.  A possible Head & Shoulders formation awaits beneath the low at 98930.00.  The Cycles Model suggests the current decline may continue to the end of November.  Should the neckline be broken, the decline may resume about three weeks later.

Gold futures rose to 4152.00 this morning, lifting it solidly above its Cycle Top at 4098.00.  The Cycles Model offers a rally to mid-December.  The intended target is a little more obscure, with 4500.00 being the base case.  A lot may depend on geopolitical events.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

2:12 pm

SPX may have completed its first fractal from the all-time high.  It is now due for a reversal to a much lower value, possibly its September 2 low at 6360.00 or lower.  The  Sell signal is confirmed beneath the trendline and mid-Cycle level at 6738.70.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 6797.10 as a short squeeze creates a 57% retracement thus far.  The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement lies at 6810.61.  The Cycles Model calls for another hour or more at these or higher levels as the first bearish fractal completes in approximately 8 market days.  Investors were not buying the dip.  The bounce came from short covering and dealers liquidating to cover Friday’s options expiration.  Hedge funds and individual speculators remain “all in” the AI darlings.  The last pension contributions catch-up date happened on October 15.  Note: the peak occurred two weeks later.  Substantial lay-offs by corporate America have reduced the flow of contributions to 401(k) plans, reducing the flow of cash to passive index funds, further exacerbating the regular supply of new money to equities.

Today’s options chain show Max Pain at 6730.00.  Long gamma may begin at 6750.00 while short gamma rules beneath 6700.00.

VIX futures descended to 18.40 thus far.  A normal retracement may reach the trendline near 17.50 or the 52-day Moving Average at 17.01 before take-off.

The November 12 options chain shows Max Pain at 21.00.  Short gamma resides at 15.00 to 20.00.  Long gamma begins at 25.00.  The overall sentiment is still short.

TNX has probed above the 52-day Moving Average at 40.90 this morning and may go higher, short-term.  The reversal at the Intermediate support  may take another day or two to completion.  Subsequently, it may be due for a Trading Cycle low near mid-November.

USD futures may be consolidating at mid-Cycle support at 99.54.  It may resume its correction to the 52-day Moving Average at 98.42 by the week end.  Trendiong strength may not appear for the next two weeks, but may revive at month-end as the current Master Cycle wraps up.

Bitcoin is continuing its retracement from its Cycle Bottom at 98932.00.  A final probe higher may be made to the 50% retracement value at 107663.00 or as high as the mid-Cycle resistance at 111511.00.

BKX may have extended its Master Cycle high to today.  This has become a very stretched Cycle which may be due for a substantial decline.

Gold futures rallied to 4114.85 the morning as it may have overcome the Cycle Top resistance.  The breakout may allow gold to rally even further, as the new Master Cycle may extend to late December.  The prospect of further downside may be postponed to 2026.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

2:16 pm

SPX plunged beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 6670.00, then bounced above it.  It may rebound to an afternoon high at 6696.00 or the trendline at 6732.00.  This sets up for an even larger panic decline this weekend.

11:10 am

SPX has declined beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 6661.88. The sell signal is now doubly indicated and the decline continues.  Take appropriate action.

7:30 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures declined to 6691.00 this morning after having declined through the trendline at 6720.00, then closing at trendline resistance.  A sell signal has been triggered, offering an exit for longs and the opportunity for hedging/shorting.  The next lower support  is the 52-day Moving Average at 6658.36, which commonly elicits a bounce.  Should that occur today, a vigorous bounce  to 6800.00-6850.00 may ensue.  The alternate view allows the SPX to decline through the 52-day followed by fractal expansion (panic decline).  The Cycles Model reveals heightened volatility (a possible panic Cycle) starting today and continuing through the weekend into next week.  A large factor in the decline is the heightened layoffs.  The immediate result is the cessation of contributions to 401(k) plans which are passively invested into ETFs and mutual funds.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6760.00.  Long gamma may begin at 6775.00 while short gamma strengthened at 6750.00.  Options are tightly wound and may move explosively.

VIX futures rose to 20.87 this morning the SPX loses its grip on the 6-month trendline.  The Cycles Model reveals the VIX may be poised for a substantial move this weekend.  VIX continues on a buy signal that may last through late December.

The November 12 options chain shows Max Pain at 20.00.  Short gamma resides between 16.00 and 18.00, while long gamma strengthens above 23.00 and shows institutional involvement up to 55.00.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Markets have been whipping around more violently than usual over the last several weeks, a reminder that volatility is the natural habitat of a late-cycle market.”

USD is pulling back after being resisted at the 200-day Moving Average.  The Cycles Model reveals today is a day of trending strength which may propel the USD to a breakout above the 200-day.  This is the last bastion for the dollar shorts, who may be forced to liquidate  en masse, creating a strong surge.

TNX is lingering above the 52-day Moving Average at 40.32 this morning.  A breakdown may allow TNX to decline as far as the Cycle Bottom in the next week.  Keep in mind, however, that the trend in the TNX is now positive with a buy signal, suggesting that investors may buy the dip in TNX.

ZeroHedge remarks, “One month ago, when the market was freaking out by the lack of official government data (it has since realized again, that whether the government is open or closed, or what the jobs number is – certainly not until it is revised 3 or 4 times, does not matter), everyone scrambled to find private sources of economic data.”

Bitcoin is declining to test the Head & Shoulders neckline at 98932.00, where a bounce is possible.  A breakthrough triggers the formation with a subsequent panic decline.  The Cycles Model suggests a disturbance beginning during the weekend with a panic decline developing into next week.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

1:20 pm

SPX has crossed the 6-month trendline at 6725.00, creating a sell signal.  There may be a bounce soon that could take SPX back above the trendline, but the sell signal remains.  This may be a good opportunity to cut longs and add hedges.  Observation: A 50% retracement may allow the SPX to rise to 6813.50.  Likewise, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement may retrace the SPX to 6839.00.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures consolidated inside yesterday’s trading range as tensions build toward a possible crescendo this weekend.  Should SPX remain beneath 6835.00, the odds are likely of an imminent panic sell-off. Above that level, the situation remains more complex.  Smart money is already exiting equities, regardless of a potential new all-time high.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6805.00.  Long gamma may strengthen above 6835.00.  Short gamma dominates beneath 6800.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are higher, rebounding from session lows for the second day in a row, amid headlines that layoffs are surging due to AI which in turn is raising odds of a Dec rate cut, with JPM saying that “the market is weighing a weaker labor market and potential spending vs. evidence on the efficacy (and ROI) of AI plus productivity gains.” Challenger job cuts jumped to over 150K in October, nearly triple the year-earlier period and the most in more than two decades.”

VIX futures are also trading within yesterday’s trading range.  It may retest the 50-day Moving Average in the next day or so.  However, the Cycles Model calls for a trending surge into the weekend.  Should the surge continue, the VIX may continue to rise into mid-December.

TNX has pulled back from yesterday’s high and may correct over the next week or so.  Support may initially be found at the Intermediate level at 40.79, but it may go as low as the Cycle Bottom support at 39.77.

Bitcoin is consolidating this morning, but may be due for a panic washout this weekend.  The potential Head & Shoulders formation indicates a possible decline to the April 7 low or beneath it.  Bitcoin has been used as a tool for moving money across borders seamlessly.  That may be coming to an end as capital controls are being considered in the NATO countries to keep money inside their borders and allow access by authorities that are becoming more tyrannical.

ZeroHedge remarks, “These lessons go for pretty much any asset class, but where I’ve noticed the largest concentration of inane theories, economic non-sequiturs and general outright confusion is among the most hubris-laden speculators in the market, the Bitcoin crowd.”

BKX continues to consolidate sideways above the 52-day Moving Average at 149.93.  The 52-day may act as a support, but may release it, trap door style, this weekend.  Regulators always try to release bad news over the weekend, hoping to escape notice.  SOFR spreads have been blowing out, indicating distress in the banking market.  The Cycles Model suggests a panic may develop over the weekend, causing a liquidity crunch.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:45 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures took a deep dive to test Intermediate support at 6718.46 in the overnight market, then bounced in an attempt to recover its losses.  Should the bounce continue, SPX may rally to a new all time high near the Cycle Top at 7014.49.  A failure to rally further may propel the SPX to the trendline at 6710.00-6720.00.  Beneath that lies the 52-day Moving Average at 6646.52 and a sell signal.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain near 6800.00.  Long gamma rules above 6825.00 while short gamma prevails beneath 6750.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “Welcome to day 36 of the government shutdown which officially makes it the longest shut down in history. Futures are trading moderately lower, following weaker Asian and European sessions, but well off session lows as Japan retraced nearly 50% of its losses during the session.”

VIX futures rose to 20.02 this morning, surpassing the mid-Cycle resistance at 19.58.  While the SPX sell-off continues, the VIX remains quite subdued.  That may indicate the SPX has more potential upside this week.  Should that happen, VIX may probe back beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 16.76 by the weekend.  That scenario may lead to possibly explosive activity early next week.

Today is options expiration and out-of-the-money trades are being closed out.  The November 12 options chain shows short gamma ranging between 16.00 and 18.00.  Long gamma rules above 20.00.

TNX continues to challenge the 52-day Moving Average at 40.98, but hasn’t broken out of its consolidation.  The Cycles Model infers today to be a high energy day.  Should TNX make a clean break above the 52-day and the consolidation, we may see rising rates through the better part of December.  However, a break down may switch to lower rates for the same period.

ZeroHedge latest release, “Superficially, there were no surprises in the quantitative aspects of this morning’s Treasury refunding announcement: as previewed earlier, the Treasury just announced a total quarterly refunding size of $125 billion, just as expected…”

USD futures continue their rally to the 200-day Moving Average at 100.35, where it may meet some resistance.  Trending strength is building, however.  A show of strength may help the USD move higher through the weekend.

Bitcoin has bounced from the Cycle Bottom at 99824.73 this morning as it consolidates and digests its losses.  The Cycles Model notes a buildup of trending strength over the weekend and early next week, possibly indicating further losses.  The end of the current Master Cycle may be due in about three weeks.

BKX tested the 52-day Moving Average this morning, then sold off.  We may anticipate BKX to decline for the next seven weeks with particular strength (possible panic) this weekend.  SOFR is soaring above its discount rate.  This information is not available in the normal news channels and may not appear until this weekend.  Today’s loss of support at the 52-day indicates smart money exiting the banking index.  The sideways consolidation after the initial sell signal in October has lulled investors to sleep again.

Gold did not make a new low, beneath the October 28 bottom at 3886.69, which completed a Master Cycle.  The new Master Cycle is appearing with strength today and may last to mid-December.  We may see gold break out above 4000.00 and continue going higher with growing strength toward the end of November and especially in early December.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures gapped down to 6757.50 this morning, making the October 29 high as the probable end of the Master Cycle.  This morning’s decline tested short-term support at 6748.48 (not shown).  Should the SPX bounce from here, the rally may  resume to test round number resistance (7000.00) and Cycle Top resistance currently at 7005.60.  Should it do so, the Master Cycle may extend  to Monday, November 10.  Meanwhile, the 6-month trendline lies at 6700.00, beneath which lies a sell signal.  Unfortunately, considering the downside is not in fashion.  We are now conditioned to believe that the next rate cut or QE may be rewarded with higher values in the market.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6855.00.  Long gamma lies above 6855.00 while short gamma dwells beneath 6800.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are under serious pressure this morning with all 3 indices down more than 1% with Palantir’s strong beat and raise not only failing to spur follow-through buying but sparking what appears to be momentum chasing revulsion. Combined with a pullback in crypto and some hawkish Fed remarks, an unwind in pockets of the hyper-momentum trade is taking hold.”

VIX futures rose to 20.48 this morning, soaring above the mid-Cycle support/resistance at 19.56, evidence of today’s forecasted trending strength.  It may be due for a pullback to retest the 52-day Moving Average at 16.72 by the weekend.

To0morrow’s options chain shows Max Pain at 17.00.  Short gamma has a monster holding at 15.00 while long gamma offers a substantial call wall at 20.00.

TNX is consolidating around the 53-day Moving Average at 41.01.  Tomorrow may exhibit a show of strength in the TNX, completing its first possible bullish fractal and confirming a buy signal for yields.  The Alternate view may show a panic decline instead, extending the Master Cycle to the end of the week.  Should that be so, the potential target may be  in the range of 36.00-38.00.

USD futures continue their rally, possibly building strength toward the weekend.  The probability of a pullback to the 52-day Moving Average at  98.28 may be rising, but its timing is unclear.  The top view reveals fractals may point to an immediate pullback, followed by a panic rally into the weekend.

Bitcoin is gaining strength to the downside.  Bearish momentum may turn into a panic by the weekend.  The Cycle Bottom support at 99633.99 may not hold.  The current Master Cycle may come to an end by the end of November.

BKX has lost its hold on the 52-day Moving Average, confirming its sell signal.   The Cycles Model suggests the next two days may be particularly strong to the downside.  This marks the first of seven weeks of potential decline.  Ending Diagonals are most likely to completely retrace to their origin, the April 7 low.

Gold futures made an overnight low at 3937.56, marking a retest of the October 28 Master Cycle low.  There may be an immediate surge in trending strength starting tomorrow, resuming the uptrend.  Should that be so, gold may resume its rally in a parabolic fashion.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures have risen to 6873.20 this morning, as a final probe to the Cycle Top at 6994.65 (7000.00).  A reversal from the Cycle Top marks the end of the current uptrend.    The Cycles Model suggests the final thrust may be over by mid-week.  Should that be so, there may be a dramatic shift in the trend by the weekend.  Following that, there may be a seven week decline, similar to the decline ending on April 7.  The target of that decline may be the the April 7 low.

The options chain is tightly wound today.  Max Pain may be found at 6860.00.  Long gamma may prevail above 6880.00 while short gamma becomes prevalent beneath 6850..00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are signaling a solid start to November, led by Tech with small caps flat, as traders gauge the durability of a seven-month global equity rally fueled recently by strong tech earnings and easing US–China trade tensions.”

VIX futures continue to consolidate above the 522-day Moving Average showing a  buy signal.  The descending trendline lies above 18.00, while the mid-Cycle resistance is at 19.56,confirming a possible change in trend.  There may be a dramatic shift in velocity starting on Tuesday, with further confirmation in a week.  The Cycles Model also infers a possible 7-week rally in the VIX.

The November 5 options chain shows Max Pain at 17.00-18.00.  Short gamma resides at 15.00 while long gamma is strong above 20.00.

The uo-year Treasury Note index ;has risen above the 52-day Moving Average at 41.05 this morning, confirming the buy signal in yields.  The Cycles Model suggests a burst of trending energy by mid-week, with a potential target at mid-Cycle resistance at 42.81.

USD futures continue their climb above the mid-Cycle support/resistance at 99.83.  The Cycles Model shows USD gaining strength this week.  This pattern may persist to the end of November.  The decline in the Euro shows possible money flows to the USD.

Bitcoin has renewed its decline after being repelled at the mid-Cycle resistance at 111312.00.  The Cycles Model indicates a continued decline to the end of November.  Narrowing trading bands indicate a strong  (panic) move may be developing.  Bitcoin has gone nowhere since last December an may be ripe for a fall.

BKX is being held beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 149.70 this morning.  The Cycles Model warns that a breakaway decline may develop tomorrow, with multiple surges of potential panic losses through the weekend.

ZeroHedge remarks, “I think I’ve identified the four horsemen of the next stock market apocalypse — each one manageable in isolation, but collectively large enough to reshape a financial system priced for perfection.

Subprime auto, commercial real estate, private credit, and crypto all scratch me where I itch when thinking about precarious pockets of today’s stock market.”

Gold may have made its master Cycle low on October 28.  If so, today may reveal the first surge of trending strength to propel it above the Cycle Top at 4050.91 again.  Should that be so, gold may rise substantially to mid-December.