The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
1:05 pm

The Ag Index is in the final phase of its correction. A reversal may be imminent in the next week., making this a good time to accumulate agricultural shares and commodities. The Ag sector is experiencing a secular uptrend since June 2020 and may be due for a resumption after the current correction.
ZeroHedge remarks, “The agriculture industry in the United States is deeply broken. Farmers are the foundation of it all, but they are being financially squeezed from every direction. They are being squeezed by the giant monopolies that control the seeds, fertilizer and machinery that they need. And they are also being squeezed by the giant monopolies that purchase most of what they produce. Meanwhile, demand from overseas has dried up thanks to the global trade war. U.S. farmers really are facing a “perfect storm”, and as a result most farms are losing money and bankruptcies are surging.

Most Americans have absolutely no idea how bad it has gotten.”
12:55 pm

BKX has been caught up in the liquidity downdraft that may break the uptrend. The Cycles Model suggests the decline may last to late October before a corrective bounce may ensue.
ZeroHedge remarks, “Earlier today, when following up on what is the biggest story of the week, if not year, we said that the First Brands bankruptcy, where a historical meltdown of rehypothecated, off-balance sheet debt…

… means that at least $1.9 billion in cash has disappeared, has been completely ignored by virtually everyone due to the far shinier daily AI circle jerk, which helps melt stocks up every single day and serves as a wonderful distraction to everything else.”
12:38 pm

TNX confirmed its race to a new low in the Triangle Formation. It has about two weeks to go and may challenge the April low at 38.86 in the current Master Cycle. Thereafter, it may embark on a rally that may last to mid-December.
12:25 pm

VIX may have “phase shifted” into a new Master Cycle as it broke above the upper 6-month trendline. The move was quite unexpected, based on Trumps threat to massively increase tariffs on Chinese products. This may allow the new Master Cycle to continue to late December.
12:17 pm

SPX has declined to 6618.18 as it reversed from its all-time high. The next support may be the 50-day Moving Average at 6527.05 where a bounce may be generated.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity markets are tumbling following comments from President Trump threatening “a massive increase of tariffs on Chinese products” being imported into the US, accusing China of becoming “hostile” due to their export controls
Additionally, Trump said he saw “no reason” to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping
This immediately prompted a wave of selling pressure across all equity indices with Nasdaq down over 2%.”
9:05 am

Good Morning!
SPX futures are hovering between their all-time highs and the Ending Diagonal trendline at 6700.00. The Cycles Model suggests today may be an ideal day for a reversal beneath the trendline, allowing equities to begin their decline for the next month. Retail investors are cautiously adding long positions through calls. However, smart money may be taking the opposite side, as exhaustion sets in. The contest may not be evenly matched as earnings season is about to begin in earnest.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6745.00. Long gamma may begin above 6750.00 while a wall of over 9,000 put contracts await at 6700.00.
ZeroHedge remarks, “US equity futures are flat as markets took a breather at the end of another “buy-everything” week dominated by speculation about the sustainability of the blistering global equity rally. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 were unchanged, with the gauge on track for a modest weekly gain to a new record high despite yesterday’s pullback and with the US government shutdown in its second week with no end in sight and the economic data drought depriving investors of guidance (which appears to be bullish).”

VIX futures continue to wind up for a sudden release as tensions build in the vol area. The most likely path may be a quick trip to a new low before an explosive move higher. The alternate scenario may be a simple phase shift into high gear. The reality is that extended bouts of low volatility lead to explosive releases of highly chaotic moves.
The October 15 options chain shows short gamma beneath 16.00 with a singular substantial holding of puts at 21.00. Long gamma may begin at 17.00, but without much conviction above 30.00.

TNX dove to 40.90 this morning as it was repelled at the Triangle trendline to make a possibly new low. The Cycles Model suggests another week of decline and possibly an extension of Wave [E] in an effort to force rates even lower.
ZeroHedge reports, “After two decidedly subpar coupon auctions earlier this week – a soggy 3Y and a disappointing 10Y – moments ago we got the week’s final sale, this time of 30Y paper and this one too could have been stronger (although it also could have been worse).
The reopening of 29Y-10M cusip UM8 priced at a high yield of 4.734%, which while up from 4.651% last month, was still the second lowest since March. It also tailed the When Issued 4.730% by a modest 0.4bps, the 3rd tail in the last 4 auctions.”

USD may have begun a reversal after making a possible Master Cycle high. However, the fractal may not be complete, leaving room for a possible new high early next week. However, the breakout may be met with some resistance before resuming it rally. An alternate view suggests the current Master Cycle may extend to a low in the next week, rather than a high.