The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
9:00 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures attempted to make a new high, but failed at 6881.80 thus far. So close…this is the second attempt at the all-time high that ended marginally lower, instead. The Santa rally may have failed to thrive. The Cycles Model infers that stocks have entered their pivot/reversal zone. The chances of a new ATH have blurred and may be erased shortly. A decline beneath 6825.00 gives a structural sell signal, but note the options chain. Further confirmation awaits beneath the Intermediate support at 6791.54. The 52-day Moving Average lies at 6769.00, beneath which a sell signal is commonly given.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6870.00. Long gamma may begin above 6880.00 , with massive calls (over 50,000) above 6900.00. Short gamma begins massively at 6855.00 with 48,673 put contracts this morning, and more below. Whichever direction the SPX goes, it may do so vigorously.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are flat, pointing to a muted open off the overnight session highs on the last full trading session before Christmas, as traders await the last remaining data sets of 2025 to see whether they could materially change expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.”
VIX futures have risen to 14.45 thus far. A buy signal awaits above the trendline at 16.00 while confirmation lies at the 52-day Moving Average at 18.31. The VIX has been known to move rather explosively out of its Master Cycle lows. This is something to watch for today.
Tomorrow’s VIX options chain shows short gamma beneath 15.00 while long gamma resides massively above 16.00.
TNX futures are at 42.00 this morning while the cash market shows 41.98. The Cycles Model shows TNX emerging out of its doldrums in a possible breakout, rising to mid-January. The five-year treasury note goes to auction today, while the seven-year not is scheduled to be auctioned on December 24. Should the auctions not go well, hell breaks loose.
ZeroHedge notes, “It’s the last treasury auction week of the year, and due to upcoming holidays, we are running on an accelerated scheduled which means the 2Y auction which usually takes placed on Tuesday, is Monday’s business instead. It was a subpar auction with modest demand; overall grade – not great, not terrible.”
USD futures dipped to a possible early Master Cycle low at 97.85 this morning, with possible confirmation by year-end. A rise above the mid-Cycle resistance at 98.77 may confirm the reversal. Otherwise, USD has the option of a further decline to the Cycle bottom at 96.72.
Bitcoin fell beneath its Intermediate resistance at 89073.00 and is testing the Cycle Bottom again, at 86498.00. It has performed a Master Cycle low at 85085.00 on December 19 and bounced, leaving the possibility of a decline to the first week of February.
Silver rose to a morning high at 70.75 before reversing back down. This may be its Master Cycle high, as it has breached the upper trendline and may have reversed beneath it.