The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
8:45 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures rallied to 6922.30 in the after-hours, then sold off to 6865.00 as I write. Today is day 253 (of a potential 258) in the Master Cycle. It is in the reversal time zone, but this morning’s pullback is too shallow to make a judgement yet. Intermediate support is at 6692.59. The Trendline is near 6650.00. The 52-day Moving Average is at 6614.71. These three supports must be broken to confirm a sell signal.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6885.00. Long gamma strengthens above 6900.00 while short gamma shows resilience beneath 6850.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures drop as the Trump-Xi trade truce was in line with expectations and hasn’t provided impetus for stocks to move another leg higher, after Fed Chair Powell’s pushback on another rate cut in December being a lock, while Mag7 stocks are under pressure (META -7.8%, MSFT -3.2%) as we await AAPL and AMZN tonight.”
VIX futures may be consolidating above the 50-day Moving Average at 16.62 this morning. The Cycles Model suggest muted activity until early next week. Afterwards, a blast-off in volatility may resume until the end of December. The target may be off the chart.
The 10-year Treasury Yield has gapped through Intermediate resistance and is now testing the 52-day Moving Average at 41.13, being propelled by the last two days of trending strength. Bond volatility bottomed on Wednesday and may already be on the rise. The Cycles Model suggests that the current trend may last to mid-December. Trending strength may be high in the first half of November.
BKX may be retesting the 52-day Moving Average at 149.49 in a final attempt to extend beyond the Master Cycle high, currently on Monday, October 27, at 151.06. A possible target may be 151.31, made on October 15. The Cycles Model suggests a possible reversal may be made by Tuesday, November 4, or the following day. The subsequent decline may resume until late December. The cause of the reversal is a deterioration in funding of money markets about to become critical.