June 25, 2024

11:10 am

BKX tested Intermediate resistance at 103.86 and failed.  It has since declined beneath the 50-day Moving Average at 102.87, reinforcing the confirmed sell signal.  Ahead of it is a two-week decline that may take your brea(d)th away.  Its target may be the Cycle bottom and Head & Shoulders neckline near 72.50.  This Cycle may complete a round trip to the October low.  The question is, how may banks are set to fail in the next two weeks?


8:15 am  Ar you praying for our country?

Good Morning!

NDX futures rose to a morning high of 19592.00.  A bounce ending beneath 19689.00suggests a minor correction with a resumption of the decline to Intermediate support and the 2-month trendline at 18853.00.  The NDX star performer, NVDA, gained $1 trillion in 23 days, but lost $430 billion in 3 days.  The market is dependent on this single pony to pull a wagon loaded with expectant investors.  Good luck.

Today’s options chain shows Maximum Investor Pain at 19525.00  There is no discernible long gamma.  Short gamma begins at 19500.00.


SPX futures bounced to 5463.00 this morning.  The bounce may not last before resuming its decline.  Smart money is shorting the bounce.  The Cycles Model calls for an intensification of the decline starting today.

Today’s options chain shows Max pain at 5465.00.  Long gamma may begin at 5500.00 while short gamma starts at 5450.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US index futures are higher, led by a rebound in the tech names in general and Nvidia in particular which rose as much as 3.5% in premarket trading after getting routed by a three-day, 13% selloff that wiped out $430 billion in market cap and saw it drop back into 3rd place behind Microsoft and Apple, after briefly becoming the world’s most valuable company last week. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.1% while Nasdaq futures gain 0.4%. European stocks are in the red, led lower by industrial names, while Asian equities gained, snapping a three-day losing streak, as advances in value stocks helped offset weakness in the tech sector. Bond yields reversed a modest rebound and have extended their Monday drop with 10Y TSYs trading at session lows of 4.21%, down 2bps, while the USD is at session highs. Commodities are mostly lower, particularly base metals and Ags. Overnight, the news flow was relatively quiet as investors are mostly digesting the tech correction. Today, we will receive Conf. Board Consumer Confidence data at 10am. On earnings, FDX will report after market close.”



VIX futures have risen to 13.52 this morning.  A rise above the 50-day Moving Average earns the recognition  by many of a possible buy signal.

Wednesday’s options chain reveals Max pain at 13.00 with no short gamma.  Long gamma begins at 15.00.


USD futures continue their rise above the  50-day Moving Average at 105.08.  A brief decline to retest the mid-Cycle support is possible.  However, the trend is higher over the next six weeks.


TNX futures tested last week’s low with a morning low of 42.08.  TNX shows a possible Triangle formation that points to a final probe lower.  The target may be the trendline at 41.50.  Today is day 246 in the Master Cycle, suggesting another week at or near the lows.  Today’s auction of ($70 billion) 5-year notes and tomorrow’s auction ($44 billion) of 7-year notes may either make of break this outlook.


Gold futures declined to a morning low of 3332.95 in a two-week consolidation beneath the 50-day Moving Average at 2356.52.  This is not a healthy sign.  The Cycles Model suggests the path of least resistance may be a decline to the mid-Cycle support at 2132.82.  The Cycles Model suggests a decline to a lower target may be possible.

ZeroHedge comments, “Central banks have been gobbling up gold, and based on responses to the World Gold Council’s 2024 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, their appetites for the yellow metal aren’t going to be satisfied any time soon.

Last year, central banks added a net 1,037 tons of gold to their reserves, just slightly below the record of 1,082 tons in the previous year.

That pace of buying will likely continue.”


Crude Oile futures rose to a morning high of 81.89 in a likely completion of a three week correction of its decline.  The Cycles Model calls for a possible 5-week decline that may breach the Head & Shoulders neckline.

ZeroHedsge remarks, “Don’t tell Greta, or her much easier on the eyes replacement, Sophia.

At a time when the peak of “green” virtue signaling has come and gone, we regret to inform you that all that jawboning and posturing has achieved… absolutely nothing because according to the Statistical Review of World Energy report released on Thursday, global fossil fuel consumption and energy emissions hit all-time highs in 2023 (even as fossil fuels’ share of the global energy mix decreased slightly on the year).”



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