June 24, 2024

:45 am  Are you praying for our country?

Good Morning!

NDX futures are hovering in a 60-point renge on either side of 19700.00.  It is beneath the Cycle Top support/resistance at 19901.50, making it a candidate for an aggressive short position.  At the very least, longs should consider lightening positions.  Investors have been jumping almost entirely into tech, causing the internal supports to weaken.  Should those supports give way, the losses may be shocking.

Today’s options chain shows a very large short position at 19750.00, clustered in an environment of indecision.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Ok, calling this a “one stock” stock “market” seems a bit extreme, but is it? On Thursday when stocks rolled over (the Nasdaq 100 started higher at the open and then dropped almost 300 points from there), virtually everyone I spoke to pointed to NVDA shares reversing as the main weight on the overall indices. Throughout much of Thursday and Friday, I was receiving many more notes on support/resistance related to NVDA than the indices, Treasuries, or anything else that could be whipping markets around. Yes, Friday was “triple witching,” which likely added to the volatility, but there was one stock that dominated all market conversation.

I’m wondering if that is why it is so difficult to make sense of markets on many fronts? Why we seem to be getting a variety of indicators, all pointing in different directions?

Breadth, one of the topics in last week’s Same But Different, is clearly front and center in this report.”

ZeroHedge shrugs at the news, “NVDA: Probably nothing…

First negative week for Nvidia since April. Only short consolidation or trend reversal?

Source: Bloomberg

Probably nothing (II)

Insider selling in NVDA is at the fastest pace in years.”



SPX futures have been hovering between 5452.00 and 5479.00, waiting for a break in either direction.  Short-term support lies at 5379.67, where an aggressive sell may be made.  A two month trendline lies at 5350.00.  Intermediate support lies at 5312.99 where sell signal confirmations begin.  The Cycles Model shows downside strength building with risk intensifying over the next two days.

Today’s options chain shows Maximum Investor Pain at 5470.00, with long gamma above and short gamma beneath it.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are flat, set for a muted open after erasing an earlier drop, and trading at record highs after three straight weeks of gains ahead of key inflation data later this week and the first debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, as well as the first round of the French snap elections. At 8:15am, S&P futures were unchanged while Nasdaq futures dropped 0.1% pressured by a 3% fall in Nvidia, which was set to extend losses for a third consecutive session, and poised to wipe out another $70 billion in market capitalization after news that ByteDance and Broadcom were discussing collaborating on a potential AI superprocessor. Bond yields are higher, and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.2% after a five-week rally. Over the weekend, macro catalysts were relatively quiet. Oil prices have calmed after a drop last week, while iron ore futures sunk amid further fears about a recovery in the Chinese property market. Bitcoin tumbled on a report the MtGOX trustee will begin $9 billion in repayments in July. This week, traders will be focused on the release of the Fed’s favored inflation gauge, the core PCE, which is expected to show the slowest advance since late last year and open the door to possible interest rate hikes. Other key events include the first presidential debate on Thursday and earnings from Fedex (Tue), Micron (Wed) and Nike (Thu).”


VIX futures have broken out higher to 13.88 this morning.  The 50-day Moving Average lies at 13.99.  A breakout above that level confirms the buy signal for the VIX.  The Cycles Model shows building strength, with particular intensity in the first two weeks of July.

Wednesday’s options chain shows heavy long positions at 15.00 and 22.00.  There is no short gamma.


TNX continues to consolidate as it closes in on the next master Cycle.  The next two weeks open the window for a reversal, but the structure lacks completion.  The primary move may be to test the trendline near 41 b efore moving to higher ground.  The crumbling economies in Europe and Japan are bringing overseas investors into US Treasuries, causing yields to decline.  The trendline near 41.00 defines the floor of the uptrend and is likely to be tested or challenged.





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