June 13, 2024

8:00 am  Are you praying for our country?

Good Morning!

NDX futures continue their climb to a morning high of 19642.00.  That ios very near the Cycle Top resistance at 19684.00, where trends often end.  Ths may very easily be the last day of the rally, since today is when stock buybacks end.  Buybacks are also at an all-time high.  Not because their equities are a bargain, but to provide liquidity to bail out insiders.  Smaart money has been leaving the market due to the fact that only seven stocks are carrying the weight of the advances.  At the end of May only 37.4% of the NYSE stocks were above their 50-day Moving Average.  The recent rally has brought the number up a bit, but it is still beneath 50%.  Internally, stocks have been fading since early May.  The Cycles Model is overdue for a reversal, but the combination of FOMO and buybacks have prolonged the Cycle to its longest in memory.

Today’s options chain shows Maximum Investor Pain at 19460.00.  Calls have the upper hand starting at 19400.00.  Long gamma is hard to determine.

ZeroHedge observes, “Not your bull break out candle

SPY gapping up, but with a doji like candle. This is indecision at highs. Pay close attention….”



SPX futures rose to 5445.70 thus far this morning, short of yesterday’s intraday high at 5447.25.  The Wave structure appears complete, but leaves open the possibility of a new high.  Should it do so, a possible target may be near 5531.00.  However, the main driver of this market is stock buybacks.  Today is the last day to exercise buybacks , as the blackout period begins tomorrow.  The sudden loss of this input may cause a dramatic reversal.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5425.00.  Long gamma may begin at 5430.00.  Short gamma may begin at 5395.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are higher, again, with Tech leading, again, and small-caps lagging, the same trend that we saw after the Powell press conference despite small-caps leading the way most of the session. As of 8:00am, S&P futures were up 0.1% and set for the 29th all time high print this year, while Nasdaq futures outperform, rising 0.6% and set to gain for a fourth straight session after another record close on Wednesday as Mag7 and Semi stocks push higher, with AVGO +13.6%, TSLA +6.3%, and NVDA +2.4% all notably higher. Many of the other Mag7 names are lower pre-mkt, but elements of the AI ecosystem are up pre-mkt, e.g., VRT +1.9%. Bond yields are ranging from -1bps to +1bps, the 10Y TSY yield last trading around 4.31%, while the dollar rebounded from the post-CPI drop to rise ahead of US data on producer prices, supported by the view that the Fed may deliver just one interest rate cut this year. Commodities are mostly higher despite crude and precious metals lower. Today’s macro data focus is on PPI, Jobless Claims; investors will also look to an event featuring New York Fed President John Williams and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen later in the day.”



VIX futures are consolidating near their lows this morning.  The Structure may be complete, or very nearly so.  The VIX Cycle is in sync with the SPX Cycle, suggesting a month of rally may ensue once buybacks have ceased.  While the market path thus far has been bullish, the risk of earnings revisions in the second half are high.  Hedge funds have been cautious for the past month.


USD futures may be consolidating between the mid-Cycle support at 104.24 and the 50-day Moving Average at 104.97 this morning.  Wednesday’s low at 104.24 may have completed a new Master Cycle on day 253.  However, I am erring on the side of caution for a day or two.


TNX made a new low at 42.40this morning in an extremely extended Master Cycle.  The reversal may bebrutal, as the pent-up energy is to the upside.







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