7:45 am
Good Morning! Have you been praying for our country?
SPX futures have been hovering near yesterday’s close after probing to an overnight high at 6360.70. Yesterday’s after-hours commentary suggested a natural peak for this rally may be near 5362.00. There is no guarantee that the rally will stop precisely at that number, but there are good reasons for suggesting that resistance lies in that zone. Today is day 279 in the Master Cycle. I have never seen the Cycles stretched as much as this. That may be due to the fact that today marks exactly 4.3 years from the peak just before the decline in 2020.
Today’s option chain shows Maximum Investor Pain at 5335.00. This is a tightly packed options array with long gamma starting at 5340.00 while short gamma begins at 5330.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures were flat after the S&P 500 notched its 25th closing record on Wednesday, even as global tech shares plowed higher with expectations of more rate cuts adding to the ongoing frenzy around artificial intelligence; With the ECB set to cut rates for the first time since 2019, Nvidia advanced almost 2% in premarket trading, building on its $3 trillion market capitalization after it surpassed AAPL as the 2nd biggest company on Wednesday and may become the world’s biggest company if it adds another $150BN to overtake Microsoft – should be quite doable for a stock that has seen the world’s biggest gamma squeeze.”
NDX may have hit its Fractal Target precisely at 19035.00 at yesterday’s close. The NDX futures went higher this morning, to 19076.00, then receded. NDX is now in negative territory. What many thought was unstoppable may have stopped…
VIX futures are hovering near yesterday’s low. Talk is rising talk of a single-digit VIX coming soon, but the Cycles Model refutes that. These conversations happen near the market tops.
The June 12 options expiration shows long gamma virtually overwhelming the shorts starting at 12.00. The highest gamma ranges from 16.00 to 23.00. In vestors have a very limited view of the VIX’s potential.
USD futures are consolidating near the master Cycle low that was made on Tuesday. USD will be on a buy signal above the 50-day Moving Average at 104.92.
TNX futures declined to 42.73 this morning, then may have reversed, opening in the cash market at 43.01. The mid-Cycle support/resistance is at 43.66. Rising above that level re-establishes the uptrend. The TNX Master Cycle is also very stretched, at 279.days.