2:10 pm
The Treasury held an unscheduled 5-year Note auction today that didn’t go well, sending the 10-year yield (TNX) above Intermediate resistance at 45.36. Tomorrow will offer a $44 billion 7-year note auction that may cause more consternation among the dealers, who must purchase the unsold securities, especially after today’s indigestion.
ZeroHedge reports, “It wasn’t quite as ugly the dismal 2Y auction earlier today but it was still ugly.
Moments ago the US Treasury sold $70BN in 5Yr paper, tying the record for biggest auction for this maturity set last month, in what was another subpar sale.
The high yield of 4.553% was below last month’s 4.659% but it still tailed the When Issue 4.540% by 1.3bps, the biggest tail since January.”
1:59 pm
The Ag Index has broken above its descending trend channel and is now challenging its Cycle Top resistance at 409.18. There may be 2-3 weeks left in the current Master Cycle, soa breakout above the Cycle Top appears imminent. GKX is on a buy signal and momentum favors the rally for the first half of June.
ZeroHedge notes, “During the Memorial Day holiday break, food inflation was certainly on the minds of those who had to purchase beef patties and other BBQ-related items for outdoor parties. The Biden administration has deflected rampant food inflation on ‘greedy’ corporations, but more likely due to supply constraints. Beef and egg prices are climbing, and staples like orange juice, cocoa beans, and coffee are skyrocketing. Now, the latest soft commodity that is pushing higher is wheat.
Bad weather across the world’s top growing regions, including the driest May in Ukrainian records, lack of rainfall in Western Australia, and unseasonably cold weather in Russia, has sent wheat futures in Chicago to a nine-month high.
7:45 am
Good Morning! Have you prayed this morning?
NDX futures attempted a new high at 18911.00 over the weekend, but pulled back to the flat line. Should the rally continue, today would be day 270, stretching the Master Cycle to its outer limits. The trouble is that the reversal on Thursday has not been strong enough to convince anyone that it is to be taken seriously, so there is a possibility of a marginal new high. The Cycles Model suggests that tomorrow may be a strong reversal day.
Today’s options chain shows a battle between the bulls and bears at 188255.00-18830.00. Conviction runs high on both sides, leaving today as a pivotal battle.
ZeroHedge comments, “Nvidia’s massive rise in the AI era has been well-documented, but did you know that it’s currently the world’s third most valuable company?
To put the massive market cap of Nvidia into perspective, we’ve put it side by side with a collection of other major U.S. tech companies.”
SPX futures rose to 5321.90 over the weekend. The Triangle structure limits the probability of going higher after Thursday’s reversal. As a result, SPX may remain in place near 5300.00. for the day.
Today’s options chain shows the highest concentration of both bulls and bears at 5300.00. Long gamma starts at 5310.00 while short gamma begins at 5290.00. This is a very tightly would market.
ZeroHedge reports, “Stocks traded in a narrow range as markets reopened in the US and Europe with investors putting (a stronger than expected) Q1 earnings season in the history books, and looking to Friday’s core PCE print prints and central bank speakers for hints on the timing of interest-rate cuts. As of 7:45am, S&P futures climbed 0.1%, while Nasdaq futs gained 0.2% helped by premarket gains for Apple which added 2.4% after China shipments rebounded. Europe’s Stoxx 600 dipped 0.2%, trimming its gain in May to 3.2%. The Bloomberg dollar index dropped while treasuries erased small gains, with 10Y yields trading at 4.46% before a slate of short-term auctions including offers of 2Y and 5Y notes on Tuesday. Brent crude rose as tensions in the Middle East ratcheted higher. On the calendar, today we get the release of house price and confidence data, before we get reports on GDP on Thursday. The centerpiece then comes on Friday, with the publication of the PCE price index, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. Economists expect that to show the smallest advance so far this year for the measure.”
VIX futures are consolidating after Thursday’s abrupt reversal. This has been the lowest the VIX has seen since November 2019. What followed a few months later was the largest rally since October 2008. History does not repeat, but is certainly does rhyme.
Tomorrow’s options expration shows Max Pain a. There is a very large short gamma deposit at 12.00 while long gamma may begin at 13.00 and may go as high as 20.00.
TNX futures rose to 44.75 this morning, while the cash market has gone to 44.57 thus far. It remains above the 50-day Moving Average at 44.53. The Cycles Model shows potential trending strength arising today with a larger burst of strength in the first week of June. While the fight for control over rates is perceived to be between the Fed and the Treasury, other factors that influence rates may prevail.
ZeroHedge observes, “In the fight against inflation, is it the Fed or the Treasury that calls the shots? The answer is, it’s both.
The Fed raises interest rates to make loans less attractive and bring inflation down, but The Treasury has its own set of magic tricks to artificially “stimulate” or “tighten” the economy as well.
One of them is a Treasury buyback program, something that was just reincarnated for the first time in about two decades. This is where the Treasury repurchases its own outstanding securities from the open market to increase liquidity, stoke, demand, and bring down yields.
If Treasury markets can’t be reigned in, the Fed expands its balance sheet by buying those Treasury securities to add liquidity and stability. These “open market operations” are usually the “money printing” that people are talking about happening at the Fed. “QE” refers more specifically to operations where the Fed is buying other assets beyond just Treasury securities, as occurred in the 2008 crisis and during COVID. But the Treasury buying back its own issued debt is, in essence, QE by another name.”
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