April 29, 2024

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures are edging higher, having made a new weekend high at 5115.40.  The 50-day Moving Average is at 5118.66.  A close above that level indicates an ability to go higher, completing a complex fractal with a fifth Wave.  Should that happen, the target may be near the Cycle Top at 5348.74.  The process of making a new high may only take 1-2 weeks.

Today’s options chain shows maximum Investor Pain at 5075.00  Long gamma may begin at 5100.00.  Short gamma may start beneath 5050.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures swung between gains and losses and traded near session highs as US traders walked to their desks on Monday morning after a rollercoaster day for the Japanese yen, which increasingly looks like some 3rd world banana republic currency instead of belonging to the world’s 3rd largest economy, and which first plunged below 160 vs the USD – the lowest level since 1990 amid dismal volumes thanks to the Japanese market holiday on Monday – only to soar more than 500 pips in what is now the first confirmed BOJ intervention since 2022. Futures were buoyed by rising earnings optimism as traders looked ahead to another very busy week for company results, and as of 7:40am, S&P futures gained 0.2% with Nasdaq futures rising 0.3%, boosted by another surge in Tesla shares.  10Y Treasury yields fell four basis points to 4.62% ahead of today’s announcement by the Treasury of its funding needs for the coming quarter, while the dollar weakened. Oil retreated, with Brent first trading below $89 a barrel, only to rebound higher amid the endless speculation that a peace deal between Israel and Hamas is coming that would reduce geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (spoiler alert: there will be no deal). Gold rose and bitcoin fell.”


VIX futures are consolidating within last Friday’s trading range after possibly completing its Master Cycle low on Friday at the mid-Cycle level at 14.95.  Friday was day 253 in the Master Cycle, so there may be another few days of correction/consolidation before launching its new Cycle.


TNX has declines since last Thursday’s Master Cycle high.  The Cycles Model suggests that the decline may last 2-3 weeks, but then may resume its march higher.

(Reuters) –  ‘As U.S. inflation worries grow, some investors are preparing for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to breach a 16-year high of 5% hit last October.

Bond yields, which move inversely to prices, have climbed in recent weeks as signs of persistent inflation erode expectations for how deeply the Federal Reserve will be able to cut interest rates without further fueling consumer prices. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note is up 80 basis points this year and last stood at 4.70%, a five-month high.”









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