April 12, 2024

3:05 pm

SPX appears to be declining through the 50-day Moving Average at 5102.22 today. There is still an opportunity for a bounce above that level.  However, a decline beneath that support may bring a waterfall event on Monday.


2:15 pm

Gold futures may have made their Master Cycle high this morning at 2448.75.  Since then it has fallen back to 2363.25.  This appears to be a Key Reversal, known to indicate a change in a major trend.  The blow-off top is known to to attract even the staunchest of investors, but seldom last forever.  Sell-side banks are all predicting higher gold prices.  

ZeroHedge remarks, “In investing, “Buy low, sell high” is among the most well-known sayings, and generally, it’s good advice. But with gold still holding near its historic all-time highs, central banks led by China are bucking the classic adage and smash-buying more, buying the top to fortify themselves against a global monetary and financial blow-up.

Last month marked the 17th in a row that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) continued stacking gold. Notably, the bank typically reports lower numbers than its actual buying volume and is now also introducing a digital yuan to facilitate cross-border gold settlements.”


9:39 am

BKX has been on a sell signal for the past week after is crossed beneath the trendline at 100.50.  Today it sits above the 50-day Moving Average at 98.18, the final support before the dam bursts.  A bad report from a smaller bank would have been expected.  However, a miss by JPM does not set a happy tone for banks across the board.

ZeroHedge comments, “Q1 earnings season officially opened moments ago when JPM became the first mega bank to reports results, and even though JPM beat on across the board – and even unexpectedly released reserves instead of setting money aside for yet another quarter – the stock is lower by ~3% after Jamie Dimon had some gloomy words about the bank’s net interest income (which dropped in Q1) and the bank’s NII outlook for 2024 missed estimates. But before we get to all that, let’s start with the Q1 historicals which were solid across the board:”


9:10 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures have plummeted to a morning low of 5149.60 and threaten to go lower.  Remember that Intermediate support has been violated and SPX is on a selol signal, so this should be no surprise.  The next week should bring on an intensified decline with a possible waterfall panic.  This may be your last chance to exits longs, as the ensuing decline may be more than investors have been bargaining for.

Today’s options chain shows Maximum Investor Pain at 5200.00.  Long gamma starts at 5200.00 and intensifies at 5225.00.  Short gamma starts at 5175.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are tumbling this morning, hit by disappointing earnings and outllook from the largest US bank, JPMorgan whose stock is down around 3% in a soggy launch to Q1 earnings season, while growing fears of an imminent conflict between Israel and Iran have sent oil surging and futures sliding. As of 8:45am, S&P futures are down 0.7%, at session lows with Nasdaq also dumping after reports China has asked its telecom carriers to start phasing out foreign chips. The drop comes as we see safe having flows move capital into TSYs with bond yields sliding up to 10bps this morning. That said, the USD is higher again with the euro and cable sliding sharply. Commodities are mixed: oil and gold rally amid Middle East tension; base metals are lower amid lower-than-expected China exports (-7.5% vs. -1.9% survey vs. 5.6% prior), while the gold explosion documented last night continues, with gold futures trading just above $2,400 and spot trading just below. Today, the main focus will be banks earnings (C, JPM, WFC). We will also receive Univ. of Mich. Sentiment data.”



VIX futures have risen to a morning high at 16.28 and threatens to go much higher, as yesterday’s low began a new minor Cycle.  Particular Cyclical strength may show today and extend through the next week.

There is a battle going on in the options chain as 15.50 shows Maximum Pain for investors.  Short gamma is heavy beneath 15.00 while long gamma is gaining strength above 16.00.


TNX is making a slight correction as it surges toward its Cycle Top at 48.28.  Today may bring a supercharged surge of strength to yields as its nears the end of its Master Cycle.

ZeroHedge reports, “After two consecutive ugly auctions (and in the case of yesterday’s 10Y reopening, very ugly), moments ago the Treasury completed the week’s coupon issuance when, on the day when the BLS published a doctored PPI report to boost market sentiment, it sold $22 billion in 30Y paper in what was yet another ugly auction.

The high yield on today’s sale stopped at 4.671%, higher than last month’s 4.331% by 34 bps and also tailing the When Issued 4.661% by 1 basis point, the first tail for the 30Y tenor since last November.”





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