April 10, 2024

7:45 am

Good Morning!

NDX futures have not sold off, suggesting a possible attempt at a new high near the Cycle Top at 18738.62.  Today is day 258 in the Cycles Model, an appropriate day for a reversal.  So, one of two things may happen.  Worst case first (for hedge funds who have been shorting), the NDX may make a run for a new all-time high above 18464.70.  What follows may be a Key Reversal in the next 24-48 hours.  That would move the March 21 top to the present.

The second action would be to break the trendline near 18000.00, immediately plunging stocks into a month-long decline.  The markets have taken the second option.

ZeroHedge observes, “Momentum wobble

The Momentum Factor sold off -3.7% yesterday, its worst pullback YTD. The bigger question here is of course if a wobble in the best performing theme of the year will have ripple effects into the overall market (ie, create a sell-off). We would say that if it continues for 1-2 more days it for sure will.

Source: Bloomberg

Biggest movers yesterday

Here is what drove the basket lower yesterday (by weight):

1. The best shall become the worst: NVDA -69%, LLY -25%, MA -8%, META -8%

2. The worst shall become the best: AAPL +28%, MSFT +20%, TSLA +17%”


SPX futures are near the breakout point at 8224.81.  Should SPX break out it may probe towards its Cycle Top at 5282.46.  Should a decline take place beneath the trendline at 5165.00, the decline may proceed as mentioned in the NDX.  Al await the CPI report for guidance.

Today’s options trading has become very crowded around 5200.00.  Long gamma may start at 5225.00 while short gamma may begin at 5190.00.


VIX futures traded down to 14.75 this morning as it awaits the CPI report.  The mid-Cycle support is at 14.74, where normal retracement usuaaally end.




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