February 12, 2024

10:04 am

BKX is taking a shot at Intermediate resistance at 95.16, up from the 50-day Moving Average at 93.33.  However, it is not likely to make it, as it is fighting against a potential downdraft much larger than the decline of last March.

ZeroHedge observes, “Even before the last week’s chaos surrounding New York Community Bancorp, US bank deposits (non-seasonally-adjusted) had been collapsing. But this week – amid the chaos – deposits exploded $147BN higher (NSA)…”

 

7:45 am

Note to readers:  I am leaving for an extended trip early next week that may last through the end of March.  I may decide at which levelto continue thepracticalinvestor.com after I return.

Good Morning!

NDX futures have been consolidating beneath Friday’s high over the weekend session.  It is at round number resistance at 18000.00.  Should it exceed resistance, it may venture near 18037.00, where the next resistance lies.  On the downside, The Cycle Top support lies at 17437.00.  Beneath it we may find an aggressive sell signal. The Diagonal trendline and Intermediate support are at 17095.28, where the sell signal may be confirmed.  The Cycles Model suggests a possible 3 week decline that could bring NDX down to the 1987 trendline.  Everyone seems to be all-in.

Today’s options chain shows Maximum Investor Pain at 17900.00  Long gamma lies above it.  Short gamma begins at 17890.00.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Terrific tech

NASDAQ continues making the consolidations, followed by a break up. For now the trend remains very much in place, but there is a negative RSI divergence to consider. Watch the short term trend line inside the channel that connects the last three highs. A failure to push above it could be signalling fading momentum.”

 

SPX futures are also consolidating beneath Friday’s high.  It is in throw-over mode and may be structurally complete, or nearly so.  SPX is in mid-Cycle and may have about 3 weeks of decline ahead.  Should it go into decline, it may seek the Cycle Bottom at 4073.40 as its preliminary target.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5025.00-5030.00.  Long gamma starts above 5030.00 while short gamma begins at 5025.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “After a record-matching 14 weeks of gains in the past 15 pushed the S&P to a new all-time high above 5000 last week on unbridled optimism about eventual Fed rate cuts and easing inflation pushed, S&P futures traded flat and near the top of Friday’s range, as traders paused their relentless buying after  That said, the rally in Big Tech that lifted the S&P 500 above 5,000 for the first time on Friday looked set to extend, as Amazon.com. Nvidia Corp. and Tesla ticked higher in premarket trading. Moves beyond those standouts were muted, in S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures trading as well as for US Treasuries and the dollar. Bitcoin traded around $48,000 after almost reaching $49,000 during the weekend on accelerating inflows into various bitcoin ETFs.”

 

 

VIX futures advanced to 13.50 this morning, lifting off from the Master Cycle low on Friday, day 261.  The Cycles show a massive effort to keep VIX down as treasuries rallied and stocks soared.  The change may be dramatic.  VIX may now be on a buy signal (above the 50-day Moving Average at 13.09).  Time to take appropriate action may be running out.

 

TNX is hovering just above mid-Cycle support/resistance at 41.72.  The Cycles Model may be in a correction phase that could last about a week.  Should that occur, it may correct down to the 50-day Moving Average at 40.65.  However, any surprises may be to the upside.  “the US fiscal policy is on an unsustainable path,” according to Powell.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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