BKX has hit the Cycle Top at 88.56 this morning and may be in reversal, as it has declined to 88.04 as I write.
BKX, our liquidity proxy, is fast approaching its nemesis, the Cycle Top at 88.56 on day 257 of its Master Cycle. The “firehose of liquidity” was meant to keep the banking system alive, only to sputter out at the peak. There may be yet another day of rally, but once it hits the Cycle Top, the curtain is drawn. The Cycles Model suggests the decline may extend in force to mid-January.
ZeroHedge remarks, “Several weeks ago, as the Fed’s Overnight Reverse Repo tumbled below $900 billion for the first time since June 2021 amid a growing debate of where and when the Fed’s reserve scarcity constraint will be hit, we warned that liquidity is rapidly approaching the reverse repo constraint level which could emerge as soon as the RRP facility dropped to $700 billion, at which point the market’s all-important credit plumbing will start to crack.”
NDX futures rose to 15961.00 this morning in a bounce off Short-term support at 15847.00. Overhead resistance is near 16000.00. Today may be the last test of 16000.00 as money flows have weakened. Money flows have come from (1) Short covering, (2) Massive stock buy backs, coupled with insider selling, (3) A virtual firehose of liquidity from the Fed, (4) Wishful thinking that the Fed would soon ease and (5) Overconcentration in the Magnificent seven (see below).
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 16000.00, a highly contested level. Dealers have taken short positions at 100 point intervals beneath that level, while there is little long gamma left.
ZeroHedge remarks, “Over the weekend, when observing the multiple violent rotations taking place below the market’s remarkably calm surface following November’s frenzied breakout, we pointed one that stood out like a sore thumb: the rotation out of the “Magnificent 7” recent market darlings and into “trash” companies such as non-profitable tech. And even after a modest reversal in this trend today, one can still see just how out of favor the formerly most desired companies have become at the expense of some of the worst of the lot (the thinking is that the Fed slashing rates so fast it would imply the US is in a brutal recession in 2024 is somehow good for said “trash” companies).
SPX futures are at 4583.90 this morning in what may be the final probe at 4600.00, as well. The global equities Cycle is near its top at the time that the liquidity plug may be pulled. The Cycles Model is neutral this week, aside from Friday’s Master Cycle high, made on day 263. The chance of another high has decreased substantially.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 4570.00. Long gamma starts at 4575.00 while short gamma may begin at 4550.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equities were set for modest gains on Wednesday even as they drifted lower from session highs, as a weakening labor market boosted bets that the Federal Reserve is done with interest-rate hikes and could pivot to monetary easing sooner, even as we are approach levels of priced-in rate cuts which some say guarantee a recession. As of 7:30am ET S&P 500 futures were up 0.1% to 4,581.50, wile Nasdaq futures rose 0.3%. Asian stocks rebounded from a three-day losing streak, while Europe’s Stoxx 600 index traded near the highest level in four months. A rally in bonds stalled with the US 10-year yield rising toward 4.2%. The US Dollar is lower, its first down day this week. Commodities are mixed with Energy weaker, Ags stronger, and base outperforming precious. Bitcoin traded close to the $44,000 mark in the longest winning streak for the largest cryptocurrency since May, fanned by expectations of looser monetary policy. The macro data focus today is on ADP, 23Q3 readings on productivity/labor costs, mortgage applications, and the trade balance.”
VIX futures sank to 12.69 this morning before a bounce. At the same time, VIX may have hit its “floor” on November 24th, which is being tested. The Cycles Model suggests the remainder of the week may be relatively quiet while trending strength may return early next week.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 14.00. Short gamma rules from 12.50 to 13.50. Long gamma starts at 15.00 and may extend to 39.00.
TNX futures hit a new Master Cycle low at 41.37. The cash market registers its low at 41.40. Today is day 264 in the Master Cycle, at one standard deviation (in time) from the mean. That may indicate it’s time for a reversal. Another indicator is the neckline at 41.00, acting as a very solid support. In addition TNX shows a double strength indicator, suggesting that the reversal may be dramatic. Contrary to the sage opinions of the experts, all hell may be about to break loose.
RealInvestmentAdvice comments, “After hiking rates by 5.25% since March 2022, the Fed is in a wait-and-see period, commonly deemed a pause. Since the Fed started hiking rates, inflation has declined meaningfully but remains moderately above the Fed’s 2% target. The economy continues to thrive, fueled by a strong labor market.
Despite the good news, a dark cloud lingers on the horizon. The Fed’s primary fear is that the lag effect of prior rate hikes has yet to impact the economy fully. They desire a soft landing, implying little economic degradation. But a much stronger downturn can’t be ruled out in their minds or ours. Given the odd juxtaposition between strong economic growth and recession fears, a Fed pause is the most likely action.”
ZeroHedge counters, “The rally in Treasuries is beginning to look tired. Yields are moving in lock-step with short-term rate-cut expectations, which are looking overcooked given the loosening in financial conditions has likely helped push the timing of the next NBER recession further out.
Treasuries are becoming progressively overbought after an impressive rally of over 5% since mid-October. The rally was not unexpected as it came off oversold conditions, but the pendulum has, as usual, swung too far in the other direction, where the drop in yields is hard to square with economic expectations.”
USD futures may be consolidating above the mid-Cycle support at 103.31 as the new Master Cycle gains traction. USD is on a buy signal that may last through the end of the year. This may have escaped the notice of the investment community. However, trending strength may be coming back next week.
Crude oil futures are making a new low at 70.56 this morning. At this rate, the Head & Shoulders target and Master Cycle low may be only days away. WE are watching this low very carefully, as it may indicate more downside to come.
ZeroHedge remarks, “Oil prices fell for the fourth straight day to close at five-month lows today as US oil exports neared record highs amid record high domestic crude production flooding the market, overshadowing Saudi Arabia’s pledges that OPEC+ will deliver on its planned production cuts.
“The voluntary element of the deal left the markets questioning whether the supply reduction would actually come into effect,” said Fiona Cincotta, financial market analyst at StoneX.
Meanwhile, the demand outlook is being hurt by rising concerns about China, she said.”
Gold futures are consolidating and may retest the Cycle Top at 2056.14 before moving lower. The Cycles Model suggests the new trend may last to the end of the year. What happens after that depends on how much damage is done to the uptrend.