SPX has met the 50-day Moving Average target in the allotted time required. The decline may resume shortly.
I am leaving early for a half-day event and may return for commentary this afternoon.
SPX futures are positive and may lead to another attempt at the 50-day Moving Average at 4471.54 this morning. The first hourly Cycle may be complete by mid-day, leaving the possibility of a resumption of the decline.
Today’s op-ex shows Maximum investor pain at 4455.00. Long gamma starts at 4470.00 while short gamma begins ar 4450.00. This is a very tight scenario.
VIX futures are consolidating this morning. The Buy signal has been made. Time to get busy.
ZeroHedge remarks, “The canary in the calm water…
Lou Mannheim and experienced seafarers know, calm waters never last forever. It has been the best of times from a volatility perspective over the past few months cross-assets and especially so in FX and equities. Astute readers of TME know that we now are leaning to being long equity volatility. Let’s have a look at some “best of times” charts and the canaries showing that it might be coming to an end.
Tight volatility regime
G10 volatility hit bottom in June; volatility regime prevailing since February 2022 is still in place, says Soc Gen.”