January 3,2023

10:16 am

The Ag Index may also be reversing today after a Master Cycle high on day 255 (Friday ).  The Cycles Model calls for a possible month of decline.


9:00 am

Good Moring!

SPX futures rose to an overnight high of 3883.20, approaching the 50-day Moving Average at 3890.93.  This may be the last hurrah of the correction.  The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement value is at 3894.37.  Today may give us a pivot into the next leg down.

Today’s op-ex shows Maximum Pain at 3825.00.  Long gamma may start at 3850.00, while short gamma begins at 3800.00.  The JPM collar may have expired on Friday.

ZeroHedge reports, “US stock futures rose on the first trading day of 2023, with some of the most beaten down and shorted stocks and sectors outperforming, as optimism crept – however briefly – into the market on the one-year anniversary of the S&P 500’s last record high.  Contracts on the S&P 500 climbed as much as 1.1% before fading much of their earlier gains. One year ago, the S&P closed at 4,796.56: since Jan. 3, 2022, the US stock benchmark endured its biggest annual decline since the global financial crisis, ending the year down 19%. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.6% Tuesday. The dollar jumped as the euro tumbled, while Treasuries were headed for their strongest start to a year in more than two decades as investors scooped up government debt on wagers the Federal Reserve will further slow its pace of rate hikes.”



VIX futures are on the rise, approaching the 50-day Moving Average at 23.48.  The year-long Triangle formation has coiled the VIX into a spring that may unravel up to 100.00 or higher.  The Cycles Model suggests a possible super strength trending for the next two weeks.


TNX has had a reversal since Friday, 12-30, leaving a probable Master Cycle high on day 253.  The Cycles Model suggests a possible 5-week decline that may beak through the trendline.  Should the decline go beneath 34.02, it may probe for the Cycle Bottom at 23.96.  Should this take place, it may have an opposite effect on stock prices.


USD futures have bounced of the lower trendline after a brief challenge at 103.14.  Should it go lower, it may sink to the Cycle Bottom at 99.44 in the next 1-2 weeks.  A lower USD may indicate money flowing out of the US.  This may also weaken the Stock Market, as the majority of the inflow is going to the DJIA.


Gold futures continue to make new retracement highs as the current Master Cycle may last through the month of January.  It has been on a buy signal since November.  The Current Master Cycle may last through the month of January.


WTIC made a wide-ranging (key) reversal this morning.  It rose to 81.50, challenging the 50-day Moving Average, then declined beneath Intermediate-term support to 78.15.  Today is day 267, 4.3 days beyond its previous high, completing the corrective structure.  The new Master Cycle may decline through the month of February.




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One Response to January 3,2023

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