October 4, 2022

10:10 am

The rally in equities may be an offshoot of the effort to keep banks liquified.  Most investors think that the banking crisis is a European problem.  It is not.  We just haven’t seen any domestic banks tell of their troubles…yet.  Earnings season is coming very soon.  A decline beneath the Lip of the Cup with Handle at 100.00 may be considered a sell signal.

EpochTimes reports, “My columns have turned rather apocalyptic of late, but for a valid reason. Just this week, we got confirmation that our financial system is, again, on the brink of collapse, when the Bank of England (BOE) was forced to enact, de facto, a bailout of the pension funds of the United Kingdom.

On Sept. 28, around noon, the Bank of England stepped (back) into the gilt markets and started buying government bonds with longer maturities to stop the collapse in their value, which could have caused the financial system to become unhinged. Pension funds were faced with major margin calls, which threatened to cause a rapidly cascading run on their liabilities, as trust in their liquidity and solvency would have become questioned by a widening circle of investors and customers.

Effectively, the BOE stepped in to limit the vicious circle of margin calls faced by pension funds because of the crashing values of the gilts.”

ZeroHedge observes, “here was a moment of levity this morning for those who opened Goldman’s research portal, Marquee, when the bank’s clients were greeted with an “encore” research report posting of the bank’s August 2 downgrade of Credit Suisse to Sell…

… a recommendation that has yield a return of over 25% in the past two months.

But lest Goldman be seen as actively seeking to push one of its biggest iBanking competitors into oblivion, the bank also sent out the following comment from its sales and trading desk on recent market color/conversations discussing Topic #1 in capital markets today: Credit Suisse. Here is an excerpt from the note sent out by Goldman’s Sarah Cha discussing the comments from Goldman London-based trade Jonathan Weetman, who weakness in the stock unwarranted  and explains why.”


10:00 am

SPX is fast approaching the intersection of the Broadening Top trendline and Short=term resistance at 3788.54.  This may lead to a 4-day decline targeting 3430.00.  This has been quite a short squeeze and has probably forced many shorts out of their positions.  It is also a perfect setup for a panic decline.  The market is inflicting pain on both sides as it purges the weak hands.

ZeroHedge remarks, “US equity markets are ripping-faces and taking names in the last 36 hours (post-OpEx), soaring 5-6% off Sunday night lows after pounging into the close on Friday (month- and quarter-end)…

However, make no mistake, put-fueled rallies (like this one) are violent, but unstable.

As SpotGamma explains this morning, if traders now come in and initiate call positions, that should lower volatility and create a base for a more sustainable rally.

However, there is nothing to stop this market from reverting and giving up all of these gains in 1 session.”


8:05 am

Good Morning!

NDX futures rose to 11460.50 in a possible attempt to overcome last week’s (Wednesday) high at 11546.90.  This short squeeze may be options driven, in order to inflict the most pain on options holders of both varieties.  Nonetheless, there is yet another probe down over the next week that may tag 9600.00.

In today’s op-ex, Max Pain is at 1190.00.  Long gamma lies at 11290.00, while short gamma lies at 11100.00.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Say hello to put puke

Nothing really new, but the crowd continues to load up on protection at local market lows, just in time when vols are very rich. Now comes the painful part where people realize “protection only costs money bro…”


Source: Tradingview

They call it range trading for a reason 

SPX is back inside the big range post the latest squeeze. Range trading is a special beast to trade, and most suck at buying when it “feels” the world is ending, and selling when it “feels” the only was is higher.”



SPX futures rose to 3749.10, exceeding last Wednesday’s high and completing a “point 5” in this reversal formation instead of “point 7” as I had mentioned earlier.  The implication is that SPX may target 3430.00, the same target as the Cup with Handle formation featured at the bottom of Wave A of Wave (1).   This should take place over the next week.  In the meantime, weak hands are being shaken out.

In today’s op-ex, Maximum Pain is at 3655.00.  Options are light, but tightly clustered so that long gamma begins at 3660.00 while short gamma begins at 3650.00.

ZeroHedge reports, ” Yesterday’s furious rally, which following a miserable September and Q3, was the best start to a quarter since 2009 and the best start of a Q4 since 2002 according to Bespoke …

… extended on Tuesday with S&P futures rising as much as 1.9% amid growing bets that we have seen the peak of the Fed’s hawkishness, sentiment which was boosted after the RBA unexpectedly hiked its Cash Rate Target by only 25bps to 2.60%, below the market’s 50bps expectation (having been the first central bank to warn that a pivot is coming a month ago), and sending the AUD and local bond yields tumbling while Australian stocks soared the most in two years! The sudden dovishness reverberated around the world, hammering the dollar for a second day, propelling European higher for the best day since June, sending the two-year Treasury yield plunging below the 4% mark and sending 10Y yields as low at 3.56%, almost half a percent below the 4% reached last Friday.  Oil advanced on expectations the OPEC+ alliance will deliver a substantial supply cut.”



VIX futures hit a low of 29.01 this morning as it may be completing its correction and preparing for the next probe higher.  It is likely that VIX may tag the Head & Shoulders neckline at 40.00 in the next week.  A breakout may be possible.

In tomorrow’s op-ex, Max Pain lies at 29.00.  Short gamma begins at 28.00 while long gamma starts at 30.00.  Should long gamma engage over the next week in a breakout, the following Wednesday’s options chain shows long gamma stretching to 70.00.


TNX continued its slide to a low of 35.62 this morning.  The Cycles Model suggests this to be a minor correction, with a possible target near the 50-day Moving Average at 31.58.  However, the Model suggests trending strength (returns?) on Thursday.


USD futures have pulled back to 110.71 as the correction continues toward the trendline or the 50-day Moving Average at 108.52.  The Cycles Model indicates a possible two more weeks of weakness before the rally resumes.





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