SPX is pausing to lick its wounds and retest the Lip at 3870.00, but may resume its decline beneath 3800.00 later today. 52401 put contracts reside there. A decline beneath that level may accelerate the decline. Puts weigh heavily down to 3500.00 in today’s op-ex.
NDX futures dropped beneath the Lip of the Cup with Handle at 11880.00 to an overnight low of 11779.10 before a small bounce to 11842.00. It remains beneath the Cup with Handle formation , which is now activated. A typical panic scenario usually takes 4.3 days, targeting the Wednesday close or Thursday morning for the low. The entirety of next week shows trending weakness. The Master Cycle is not finished there, but continues (the decline) to mid-October.
In today’s op-ex, Max Pain appears at 12080.00. There is no long gamma. Short gamma begins at 12000 with 2413 put contracts. Short gamma is strong down to 8500.00.
Of that, $509bn of single stock options will expire today, up 30% since the July lows.
This compares to an average of $489bn since 2018, and $448bn outside of the larger January expiries.
As Goldman’s Vishal Vivek notes, despite the broad decline in single stock options volumes, days around monthly expirations remain important for investors.”
SPX futures crossed beneath the Lip of the Cup with Handle at3880.00, then bounced to 3887.00 to retest the Lip before venturing to new lows. This activates the Cup with Handle formation and may be followed by up to 4.3 days of panic decline. An alternate model suggests 6 days of decline. I will monitor the progress of the decline. To be clear, there may not be a tradable low until mid-October. There is no place to hide except cash in this market.
Today’s op-ex shows SPX deep in short gamma territory beneath 4000.00. There are 119,028 expiring put contracts at 4000, 57,282 such contracts at 3900.00 and still ANOTHER 52,401 contracts at 3800.00, not including a multitude of contracts at shorter intervals. Try as they might, dealers and hedge funds offering options will not stop the runaway train.
ZeroHedge reports, ” Another day, another selloff, this time one driven by a catastrophic repricing by Fedex, which has plunged by the most ever this morning, down 20% and losing over $11BN in market cap…
… after pulling guidance and effectively warning that the entire world – and especially China – is in a recession. The fact that it is a $3.2 trillion opex today which guarantees even more volatility in the coming weeks…”
VIX futures vaulted to 27.82 thus far this morning, and appear to continue climbing. There is a Master Cycle in the VIX showing a possible high on Wednesday, September 21. However, there may be additional strength elongating this Master Cycle to Friday, Sept 23. Equities do not have a Master Cycle matching the VIX in September, but are in agreement with the next Master Cycle ending in mid-October.
Wednesday’s VIX options are clearly in the long gamma zone at 27.00 and above. Traders are buying calls in volume with strikes up to 100.00 in next week’s op-ex. Short gamma lies beneath 25.00. Don’t be surprised by sharp moves in the VIX.
TNX has now broken above its June high at 34.83, reaching 34.90 this morning. This is another runaway train that may not pull into the station until mid-November. The ability to resume a trend without a significan correction is called a phase-shift. Please observe the monthly chart below.
The red horizontal line at 53.16 may be the target over the next four months. This would complete the retracement of the decline from 2007 to 2020 (12.9 years). The next Master Cycle pivot occurs in mid-November, but only at the half-way point. The final high may be registered in early February with a 34.4-month duration.
USD futures advanced to 109.99 this morning, resuming its rally above the trendline. The next target to overcome is the Cycle Top, currently at 110.96. The USD may continue its advance to January, at a minimum.