May 2, 2022

3:19 pm

The Ag Index may have just made a very shallow, irregular correction on day 263 of its Master Cycle.  We should await a clear reversal pattern with a probe above the Cycle Top resistance at 580.63 to take action.  Once it rises above that level, the moves may be explosive.  The first Wave above the neckline may last through the end of May.

How about planting a garden?

ZeroHedge comments, “There is growing concern farmers worldwide are reducing chemical fertilizer, which may threaten yields come harvest time, according to Bloomberg. The repercussions could be huge: Lower yields may exacerbate the food crisis. 

There are alarming signs commercial farmers in top growing areas in the world are decreasing the use of essential nutrients — nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium.

Revealed last week, SLC Agricola SA, one of Brazil’s largest farming operations, managing fields of soybeans, corn, and cotton fields in an area larger than the state of Delaware, will reduce the use of fertilizer by 20% and 25%. ”


3:09 pm

TNX finally hit 30.00, as suggested.  But it may not last.  A sharp reversal taking TNX doen to the 50-day Moving Average may be in the works.

ZeroHedge remarks, “US 10Y Treasury yields just topped 3.00% this afternoon…

That is the highest yield since Dec 2018, right before Powell flip-flopped away from his hawkish stance…


2:43 pm

SPX is approaching a possible target where Wave [v] achieves equality with Wave [i] at 4037.00.  This leaves us with two options.  The first is a possible bounce at that level or higher.  However, should it exceed that level to the downside, the second option of an extended Wave [v] is achieved beneath 3966.00.

ZeroHedge comments, “One week ago, Wall Street’s second biggest bear (after BofA’s Michael Hartnett who turned rather apocalyptic last Friday, and of course excluding SocGen’s Albert Edwards who is in a category of his own), said that “there is no place left to hide” in stocks as the rolling bear markets finally hit the broader index, and warned that the bear market rally (which he was correct about unlike all of his JPMorgan peers) was about to turn “grisly” (or is that grizzly).

Fast forward to his latest Weekly Warm-up note (available to professional subscribers in the usual place), where he takes a prompt, well-deserved (again) victory lap on his latest dismal forecast, and writes that after suggesting last week that the bear market was entering the phase when virtually nothing would work, even defensives, “based on the price action, that seems to be exactly what’s happening” with price action turning “especially vicious” last week as we enter the next phase of the bear market. Indeed, while the S&P 500 dropped “only” 3.4%, the breadth suggested the move was even worse with the cumulative advance / decline line making new lows for this bear market. Defensives were a very modest underperformer for the week (-0.5% relative) even though they remain the unequivocal leader year to date (+15% relative).”


:40 am

Good Morning!

NDX futures are deep within short gamma territory.  There was a bounce over the weekend to 12982.00, but the gains were given back by morning.  Currently the futures are plumbing new lows.  In today’s options expiration, Max Pain is at 13190.00.  Short gamma begins at 13050.00.  The Cycles Model gives us three more weeks to make a Master Cycle low.  Trending strength may be very high during that time.  The Cup with Handle target may be within reach during this Master Cycle.

ZeroHedge observes, “The Nasdaq’s 13% plunge in April was its biggest monthly drop since Lehman’s collapse in 2008.

That is the 12th worst month ever. To be the worst month ever you have to beat October 1987 that has a 27% decline. The poster-child of this bear, ARK Innovation, actually managed to (-28% in April).”


SPX futures rose to 4163.10, unable to challenge the Cycle Bottom at 4209.13.  SPX is currently challenging the Lip of the Cup with Handle formation at 4120.00.  Not shown in the Daily chart is that the SPX closed on Friday at the upper trendline of a 3.5-year Orthodox Broadening Top.  A Wave (3) low in May may bring the SPX down to its Cup with Handle target  near 2542.85.  Another potential Master Cycle low in August may bring the SPX to its Wave [1] low near 2100.00.

In today’s expiring options, Max Pain is near 4180.00 while short gamma begins at 4125.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “One trading day after epic carnage shook global markets, US index futures staged a modest recovery on Monday after Wall Street’s worst selloff in almost two years. S&P 500 Index contracts rose 0.1% from an 11-month low, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.4% with volumes thinned by holidays in several markets including the UK, China and Hong Kong. European and Asian stocks fell as disappointing corporate earnings, expectations of global monetary tightening, poor data from China and the prospect of sanctions on Russian oil weighed heavily on risk appetite. The VIX remained elevated, trading above 33, as investors braced for a week that’s likely to see a global round of monetary-policy tightening that will add to concerns about global growth. 10Y Treasury yields pushed higher again, rising to 2.94% before easing ahead of this week’s key event, the Fed’s upcoming 50bps rate hike. The dollar gained as worries over high inflation and China’s Covid lockdowns contributed to investor caution, and sent the offshore yuan sliding to just shy of 6.69m the lowest since November 2020. Gold extended its slump and Brent oil dropped about $2 to trade around $104.50.”



VIX futures rose to 34.87, above its Friday high.  The ;Head & Shoulder neckline may be exceeded as the SPX declines through the Lip of the Cup with Handle formation.  Today is day 262 of the current Master Cycle with a high anticipate in the next three weeks.  As for Wednesday options expiration, VIX is in long gamma territory above 27.00.


TNX hit a new high this morning at 29.67, thus far.  As mentioned last week, TNX is going through a brief period of strength that may push it to 30.00 before a reversal.  From this point, we may see a decline through the month of May.  The proposed target may be the 50-day Moving Average at 23.56.


USD futures are consolidating within Friday’s trading range.  A full reversal may not be recognized until a decline beneath the trendlie at 102.00 occurs.  USD is in limbo.


Crude oil futures declined to 100.30, back beneath the 50-day Moving Average at 102.76 this morning.  This give crude a confirmed sell signal that may last up to 2 months.  The minimal target is the lower trendline of the Broadening Wedge formation at 70.00.  Should it exceed that,  a further decline to 50.00 is proposed by the Broadening Formation.

ZeroHedge comments, “A majority of Americans still don’t believe the Biden administration’s ham-fisted attempts to shove the “Putin’s Price Hike™” narrative down our throats.

According to a new Rasmussen poll, when asked whether Biden or Russian President Vladimir Putin is to blame for higher fuel prices, “76% of Republicans think Biden bears most responsibility for higher fuel prices, as do 24% of Democrats and 54% of voters not affiliated with either major party.

What’s more, 84% of likely US voters believe the rising price of gasoline, home heating oil and other petroleum products is a ‘serious problem.’ 61% say it’s a ‘very serious problem.'”


This entry was posted in Published. Bookmark the permalink.