March 15, 2022 – The Ides Of March

1:48 pm

Exactly 8.6 market days have elapsed from the March 3 high at 4416.78.  I had originally considered this to be a low, but it turns out to be the final bounce before the decline beneath the Lip/Neckline at 4200.00.  It would be no surprise to see a lower close from yesterday.  Since the Cycle is indicating a continuation, we may expect another 4.3 days of decline into the afternoon of March 21.

ZeroHedge observes, “In late 2021 we noted a gaping divergence in one of Wall Street’s most closely watched surveys, the BofA Fund Manager Survey: while the number of respondents seeing a stronger economy had collapsed, the allocation to stocks remained near record high levels, resulting in what we called a “historic divergence“.

Well, the divergence is no more: after several months of tentative declines, Wall Street sentiment in March has finally hit rock bottom and according to the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey conducted by Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett in which some 341 panelists with $1 trillion in AUM were polled, global growth optimism has crashed to the lowest since July 08, two months before Lehman crashed.”


8:10 am

We have not paid a lot of attention to China recently, to my regret, since the Shanghai Composite Index is nearing a bear market with a 17.7% decline from it’s September high.  I had previously mentioned that, as the Tech-heavy China stocks go, go goes the NDX.


In reality, the Chinese indices may have followed the NDX, which is down over 22% from its November high, but did not beak support until today.  NDX futures declined to a low of 12944.10, clearly piercing the Lip/Neckline of the doubly bearish formation.  The futures have bounced to 3140.50 this morning, but are losing their upward impetus.  What we are witnessing is a probable Phase-shift, where the trendline acts as a dam, holding back the rising water until it is breached.  Today may be such a day.  Despite the bounce, the technical damage is already done.

ZeroHedge reports, “Welcome to another rollercoaster session where US equity futures first tumbled alongside the second consecutive day of stocks plunging in China, which also dragged Europe lower, only to hit a U-turn around 5am at which point sentiment reversed higher, ahead of tomorrow’s expected Federal Reserve rate hike and amid mounting risks from the war in Ukraine and a Chinese equity rout. Nasdaq 100 contracts trade 0.5% higher at 7:15 a.m. after earlier slumping as much as 0.8% following the first bear-market close for the first time since March 2020. S&P 500 futures also turned 0.3% green, as did Dow futures.



VIX futures made a new overnight high at 33.83 before easing back.  It is likely that Friday’s low on day 255 of the Master Cycle may have been the bottom.  It is not always the highest or lowest reading that finishes a Master Cycle.  In this case, it announces a potential Phase-shift into high gear, as it may be launching Wave (iii) of [iii] of 3 of Intermediate Wave (C) of Primary Wave [3] of Cycle Wave 3 of Super Cycle Wave (c).  This seven-degree Wave may denote a panic developing with tremendous strength, possibly not seen since the Great Depression.  Wave 3s and Cs are never the smallest and often the strongest of the series.


The NYSE Hi-Lo Index has been problematic in the last three months, partially due to the wide-ranging swings from highs to lows in short periods of time.  In this case, it may be providing a warning of what’s to come.  The Orthodox Broadening Top offers a target for this particular decline which may not be ignored.  The targeting methodology suggests a deeper low than the March 2020 low at -2375.00.  In fact, it may rival the October 2008 low at -2891.00.


TNX is rapidly declining, suggesting a possible decline to the trendline at 17.00 before snapping back.  This may cause huge liquidity issues that may spill over to equities.  I am having difficulties with my charts that don’t seem to have a solution yet.  Thus, the change to a 2-hour chart in TNX.





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