Today is day 258 of the Banking Index, our liquidity proxy. Liquidity has the most impact on the NDX, since earnings are secondary, if nonexistent in most tech companies. A reversal may soon be upon the banks and on interest sensitive companies where earnings are non-existent and rely on low interest financing.
ZeroHedge notes, “For a while it appeared that stocks, and especially giga-techs, were willing to ignore the plungefest in Treasuries and were riding the wave of new capital (some $125 billion according to Goldman) allocated to stocks of all stripes to start the new year. However, it wasn’t meant to last, and with yields suffering their biggest 2-day surge since the chaos in March 2020…
… high-duration names, which just happen to be the market’s all-important generals, are finally sliding which in a market with as little breadth as this one…”
With all the talk about new all-time highs, a lone discrepancy stands out. The NDX is not making them. NDX usually goes along with the SPX Cycle but at certain key intervals it strays apart. In this case, I had noticed that the November 22 high in the NDX had “pushed” the SPX Cycle forward as you will notice below that the top of Wave B, where a Cycle Top usually occurs, happened two weeks earlier. It appears that we may see the same phenomenon in January, since the NDX Master Cycle is due January 14, while the SPX Master Cycle is due January 28. Yesterday I had discussed the possibility of an “event” pulling the top of the SPX (and its Master Cycle high) into the second week of January. This, among other possibilities, may be a factor in doing so.
Now for the second question. Will the NDX make a new all-time high? With Apple breaking 3 trillion, you would think that is a good possibility. Structurally, NDX does need to make a new high, since a Wave (2) must be a zig-zag formation, but will it exceed that of November 22? It may not take long to find out.
SPX futures are now over 4800.00 and rising. The month of January is anticipated to have heavy inflows, as pension plans are due to make their annual contribution by January 15. Once the biggest flows are in, we may see rising volatility and a sustained weakness by the end of the month, based on the Cycles Model.
As for the Options Chain, tomorrow’s options expiration is positive above 4775.00, pushing SPX higher. However, Friday’s options are negative up to 4800.00. That means the SPX must stay above 4800.00 for the duration of the week to keep its upward momentum.
ZeroHedge reports, “US stock futures, European bourses and Asian markets all rose, extending the blistering start to 2022 (just as Goldman predicted in its $125 billion January inflow case), with more strategists cementing their bullish projections as investors shrugged off worries Omicron could choke the global economic recovery as data on U.S. manufacturing and job openings due today will further show the world’s largest economy is resilient against the spread of omicron. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.4% and contracts on the S&P 500 climbed 0.3% to a new all time high above 4,800 after the underlying gauge closed at a record on Monday. European stocks also gained. Waning demand for haven assets pushed the yen to a five-year low, while oil fluctuated ahead of an OPEC+ meeting. The dollar and U.S. treasury yields extended their surge – with the 10Y last yielding 1.6630% – after Monday’s worst start to a year since 2009.’
VIX futures made a low of 16.34, testing Thursday’s bottom. While the SPX has no Master Cycle Pivot, the VIX is in day 265 of its Master Cycle, so a new low may be made today. However, it is due for a rebound.
ZeroHedge observes, “VIX – getting there
VIX has crashed since the early December panic. VIX is approaching the “new” natural floor level at these levels. Expecting much lower VIX from here is probably a very late trade. Ask yourself: how much downside vs upside is there in VIX from here and then assign some probabilities. Regular readers of TME are familiar with our overall view on volatility and protection: “buy it when you can, not when you must”.
TNX continues its climb, testing the breakout zone at 16.93. The test may not produce a breakout this week, but strength returns “bigly” in the second week of January. Once above the resistance zone, TNX is due to continue trending higher through the end of February.