August 10, 2021

11:07 am

NDX may be challenging its trendline at 15050.00.  You may either use the trendline as an aggressive sell signal or wait for a cross beneath Short-term support at 14967.00 for confirmation.

In addition, SPX appears to have declined beneath Point e of its Triangle pattern,indicating a sell signal may not be far off.  Keep alert for a decline beneath 4430.00 for an aggressive sell signal.


7:50 am

SPX futures dipped to 4426.50 before coming back to the flat line.  Those of you with sharp eyesight can see a Triangle formation for Wave (iv) of [c].  This always preceeds the last move in a Wave pattern.  The minimum target is 4446.00 while it may go to the Cycle Top resistance at 4463.36.

ZeroHedge reports, “There was a bit of a glitch in the matrix overnight when shortly after 10pm ET, spoos suddenly hit an air pocket, sliding 0.2% lower on a spike in volume, although the move was nothing like the flash crash in gold one day earlier. However, a few hours later it’s as if nothing had happened as futures drifted higher and were back near all time highs as traders awaited fresh progress towards the passing of a much-anticipated infrastructure bill on Tuesday morning despite media concerns that the delta variant is straining some hospitals across Florida and Texas. At 715 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 17 points, or 0.06%, S&P 500 e-minis were unchanged, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 21.5 points, or 0.14%. Treasury yields were also unchanged while the dollar drifted higher.”



VIX futures remained flat in the overnight session, just beneath the 50-day Moving Average at 17.39.  Friday’s low appears to be the Master Cycle low.  The new Master Cycle may progress until late October.


NDX is also poised to make its final probe to the Cycle Top resistance at 15310.09.  NDX futures are positive this morning and are likely to make a top in the next 24-36 hours.

This is reminiscent of a conversation I had with Sir John Templeton on March 20, 2000.  He had gone short the NDX in mid-January with a $2 million stake.  The morning I talked with him he was down $600,000.00.  I aske him what he was going to do.  He said, “I just added another $600,000.00 to my short position and I am considering more.”  Less than a month later, the NDX was down 65%.   I estimate a high probability of a similar move in the NDX at this time.

The Shanghai Composite Index rose to 3529.93 in the overnight market.  While substantial, it still remains beneath the 50-day Moving Average at 3536.46.


TNX futures made an overnight high at 3.36, above the Intermediate-term support/resistance at 13.25 and mid-Cycle support/resistance at 13.26.  The cash market opened at 13.22and remains there for the time being.  A move above 13.00 is a shot across the bow of the stock market.  The new Master Cycle is aimed firectly at September options exiration, very likely a high near 20.00.  The magnituted of this move may be devastating.


USD futures rose to 93.10 in the overnight session.  The new Master Cycle is also due to continue rising through option expiration in September.  This is indicative of money flowing into the US due to higher interest rates.  The EU still has a negative rate.  The European economy will be the first to collapse.  That is why the great reset is taking place.




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