August 4, 2021

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures have backed down to 4413.10 in a brief pullback.  The Wave pattern is much clearer and indicates a potential rally to the Cycle Top at 4460.44.  It may come in two more pushes higher and potentially may end on Friday, day 270.  The structure carries the shape of an Expanding Diagonal.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity-index futures were little changed near all-time highs, as global shares rode earnings to a fresh record high boosted by easing concerns over China’s crackdown on gaming and technology industries, but worries about Covid-19 variants lingered. S&P futures were steady, trading 5 points lower or -0.11%, in the wake of a record S&P 500 close on robust earnings. Tech shares led a broad-based advance as the Stoxx Europe 600 index climbed for a third day to a fresh record. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield held its retreat, and the dollar was steady against a basket of major peers in the wait for ADP employment data to provide clues to the pace of monetary tightening in the world’s biggest economy.. WTI crude oil hovered around $70 a barrel.”


The Shanghai Composite Index rallied just a few points beyond Monday’s high, testing the Head & Shoulders neckline.  This may signal the end of a period of strength allowing the retracement.  While the Lip of the Cup with Handle formation is somewhat permeable, the neckline of the Head & Shoulders is rarely recrossed.  We may see the resumption of the decline by the end of the week.


NDX futures are hovering just above 15000.00, unable to go higher, but not having crossed the trendline/Short-term support at 14900.00.  Should the structure be an Ending Diagonal as is the SPX, it may rise to the Cycle Top resistance near 15300.00 by the end of the week.  Friday calls dominate the options expiration above 15000.00 for the rest of the week.


VIX futures have been rising in the overnight session.  This is a typical pattern as stocks enter their final push to the top.  Note the rising trendline from the last Master Cycle low.  While this may not be the final trendline for the coming rally, it is likely to provide a “floor” for the VIX going forward.


TNX appears to be consolidating prior to making the last push to its Master Cycle low, due tomorrow.  While the decline in yields support rising stocks, the reversal from the Master Cycle low removes that support.  The timing of the low in TNX may explain the extension of the high in the SPX.

ZeroHedge reports, “All major US equity indices have dropped into the red after the massive miss in ADP’s employment report with Small Caps the hardest hit…

Extending the short-squeeze, bond yields plunged on the print to a 1.12% handle, testing the spike lows from July 20th…


USD futures made new lows this session as it appears to be declining toward the 50-day Moving Average at 91.53.  It may complete the decline by the end of the week and may enter a period of strength next week.



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