The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
10:20 am

The Agriculture Index has put in an inversion high yesterday. The path of least resistance is a decline to the 50-day Moving Average at 383.40, or possibly to the trendline near 375.00. The Cycles Model suggests the next two weeks may be an accumulation phase for Ag commodities. The breakout above the descending trading channel verifies a potential change in trend. We will be reading and hearing more about food shortages in the coming year.
ZeroHedge remarks, “Pennsylvania State Police are investigating an egg heist in Greencastle, about 65 miles southwest of Harrisburg, over the weekend. The very thought of such a crime may seem unimaginable, but with wholesale egg prices reaching record highs, the thieves appear to have been paying close attention to recent developments surrounding the worsening nationwide egg shortage.
Local media outlet WHP-TV reported approximately 100,000 organic eggs (worth > $40,000) were stolen from the back of Pete & Gerry’s Organics’ distribution trailer on Saturday night in Greencastle.”
8:15 am

Good Morning!
SPX futures rose to 6079.80, an 80% retracement of the decline from 6120.91 on January 31. The Cycles Model suggests the SPX may be at an imminent reversal point today. Should that be so, SPX may decline beneath its 50-day Moving Average at 5994.34, issuing a sell signal. Retail buyers have been the driving force in keeping the SPX above the 50-day for the past two weeks. Retail participation has been greater than at the Dot-Com bubble in 2000. Yet the all-time high remains at January 24.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6050.00. Long gamma may begin above 6080. Short gamma dominates beneath 6035.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are slightly higher despite heavyweights such as including Ford and Qualcomm slumping in premarket trading after disappointing earnings while tech underperformed on mixed Mag7/Semis pre-mkt price action. As of 8:15am, S&P 500 futures were little changed after erasing an early gain fueled by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comment that the Trump administration is focusing on bringing down the Treasury 10-year yield. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 were unchanged. Bond yields and the USD finally reverse recent losses and rise this morning while commodities are stronger across all of Ags, Energy, and Metals ex-Precious. Scott Bessent said that the Administration is focused on lowering the 10Y yield rather than the Fed Funds rates; the best way to decrease yields is through a lower budget deficit. In other news, HON is splitting into 3 companies. Today’s macro focus is on Jobless data and the BOE decision. The Fed speaker slate include’s Waller (2:30pm) and Logan (5:10pm), and we get earnings from Amazon after the close.”


VIX futures rose to 16.15 overnight, then settled back to the flat line. The Cycles Model anticipates a burst of trending strength by this weekend.
The February 12 options chain shows Max Pain at 17.00. However, neither short-nor long gamma show a positive sentiment.

TNX has begun to rise out of its Master Cycle low and trendline at 44.00. What is unrecognized by many is the Head & Shoulders formation at the highs. Today’s auction shows $185 billion in 4-and 8-week T-bills will be auctioned. Bessent is not revealing whether he may curtail the issue of short-term debt VS long-term debt.
Investing.com observes, “President Trump’s comments and executive orders have roiled markets and investor expectations, but from the vantage of the Treasury market, a relative calm prevails. This could change, of course, but for now, key yields for government bonds have been flat to slightly lower in recent days.
The serene profile for Treasury yields is surprising, given the firehose of news updates on topics that, in theory, are relevant to market expectations, inflation, and economic growth. It’s only Wednesday, but Trump so far this week has launched a trade war only to dial it down, offering what may be a temporary reprieve to plans to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico (a new 10% tariff on China imports still applies).”

Bitcoin remains beneath the 50-day Moving Average at 98750.00, on a sell signal. The next support is the 100-day Moving Average at 94780.44, followed by the 5-month trendline near 90000.00. Most Bitcoin investors are sanguine about the volatility and may be unprepared for a sudden lurch downward that the Cycles Model anticipates over the weekend.

Gold futures declined to 2870.55 this morning, off its master Cycle high made yesterday at 2906.00. Cycle Top support is at 2866.95, where an aggressive sell signal may be made. The zig-zag formation identifies this as an Ending Diagonal. Once the reversal is made, the Ending Diagonal may completely retrace to the low made in October 2022.
ZeroHedge remarks, “On January 30th this was written regarding The Musical Chairs of Gold Supply
Bullion banks relied on a game of musical chairs, borrowing gold to meet short-term needs. But when enough chairs are removed—when buyers refuse to lease their holdings—banks are forced to compete for an ever-dwindling supply. That’s what’s happening now. From: Zerohedge Edit-The LBMA Doesn’t Have the Gold
Yesterday, Bloomberg, in an article entitled Gold at Bank of England Trades at Discount as Tariff Fears Drive U.S. Demand describes the current gold market situation. The article states that:
‘Gold stored in the Bank of England (BOE) vaults is trading at a discount to the broader market as concerns over potential Trump tariffs drive a rush for physical bullion. The surge in demand has created weeks-long withdrawal delays, making BOE gold less attractive than metal stored in commercial vaults.’”

Crude oil futures declined to 70.69 this morning as it tumbles beneath the 50-day Moving Average, reiterating its sell signal. The Cycles Model suggests about two more weeks of potential decline. Should it bypass the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation at 69.00, then the potential target for this decline may be the Cycle Bottom at 64.96.
ZeroHedge remarks, “Oil prices are leaking lower this morning after surging yesterday on Trump’s “maximum pressure” plan for Iran as traders weigh the effect of a US-China trade war on demand.
“Trump tariff chaos and trade war is no good for global growth and oil demand growth,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB. “But supply disruptions, as so often before, can then rapidly and suddenly turn everything around.””