For those who wish

For those of you who wish to support a spiritual message during the Lenten Season I recommend looking up theholyfaceproject.com.  As a Catholic Christian I find this project worthy of support.  In fact, I have gone on a limb and have contracted 4 billboards in the Lansing area, with an option to expand to 12 until June 30.  I have found other communities who also have an interest in promoting this message and I am coaching them in setting up their own projects.  These billboards contain no advertising.  They simply have the face of Christ as seen on the Shroud of Turin with theholyfaceproject.com beneath it.

Lansing has its own support page on the website.  As I am not currently charging for my blog, I would appreciate your support of a project dear to my heart that I have committed my own support.  Thank you.

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April 15, 2021

12:00 pm

An interesting move in TNX on day 252 of the Master Cycle.  It may be declining to 14.97, the bottom of Wave [a] to create an Expanded Flat correction.  As usual, the trend-followers have tired of their UST short positions and are taking profits…at precisely the wrong time!  The move appears to be finished but may need another day of decline to  finish its retracement.  That may also put the reversal in stocks on hold for another day.

ZeroHedge reports, “Despite soaring vaccination rates, surging economic data and spiking inflation prints, Treasury yields have been (unexpectedly) plunging in the last few days with 10Y, for example, down 15bps this week alone, to its lowest in five weeks…

Source: Bloomberg

Yields are tumbling across the entire curve as 30Y seemed to find resistance at the Nov 2019 highs just too much to break…”

 

11:09 am

The NASDAQ Hi-Lo Index appears much weaker than the NYSE.  The first major foray beneath the lower trendline was on March 4 at -113.00.  However, it appears that the decline on March 25 may have been the “real Point 6.”   A dip below 0.00 creates the sell signal.  It appears that the Mega-Tech stocks are dominating again to make a new all-time high.

 

10:30 am

Earlier this week I hade mentioned that several indicators suggested the end is closer than one would surmise.  This is one of them.  The NYSE Hi-Lo made its Master Cycle low on March 24 at -144.00.  This low appears to be “point 6” in the Orthodox Broadening Top formation.  “Point 7” appears to have been made on April 5 at 499.00, a 76% retracement of the prior decline.  While this retracement is larger than the expected 38.2 – 50% retracements normally seen in this formation, the pattern remains true to form.  That suggests we are very close to activation with a potential minimum of 2450.00 stocks making new 52-week lows over the next month, compared to 2375.00 new 52-week lows in March 2020.

Wave E of the Triangle formation may have been made yesterday (unless today’s rise goes above 488).   In either event, a decline below 62.00 gives a potential sell signal.

 

9:55 am

The Ag Index opened higher, then receded beneath round number support at 400.00.  Should it rise above a long-standing resistance/neckline at 410.00 we may see a rise matching or exceeding the last nine months.  However, the inability to rise above the trendline suggests a possible deeper retracement during May before moving higher.

ZeroHedge reports, “Chicago corn futures rallied to 2013 levels Wednesday as concerns about cold weather slowing US seeding caught traders’ attention, according to Reuters.

Temperatures across the Corn Belt, mainly in the midwestern US, roughly covering western Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, eastern Nebraska, and east Kansas, will experience well below average temperatures through this weekend. On a separate note, we covered how the cold spell has led to another Texas power crisis.

The cold blast has likely delayed seeding across the Corn Belt as farmers wait for warmer temperatures. Planting corn in cooler climates is still possible, but colder soil can take corn kernels much longer to germinate and increases the risk of seedling death. ”

 

8:45 am

Contrary to ZeroHedge’s claims, NDX futures have not made new all-time highs in the overnight session.  The futures made a near-Fibonacci 63% retracement of yesterday’s decline.  Should it turn down before reaching 14000.00, the indications are that the decline may have begun.  The NDX appears to be following the weakening lead of the Chinese Tech stocks.

ZeroHedge observes, “On the surface, markets appear very strong and healthy. Many broad indices are making new highs, expectations are for another quarter of strong earnings, and the tactical backdrop in terms of flow remains very supportive. More importantly, many of the “old” bear arguments around valuation, duration of the bull market and extreme sentiment & positioning have not worked at all for the past few months and feel pre-historically irrelevant (even though of course they should not as they one day will matter). However, when we peer a bit closer there are some early signs that would signal caution. This might not be the optimal time to increase risk but rather trim it.

1.      Hedge funds not chasing key leaders

Net flows in Cyclicals have turned towards selling globally over the past 3 weeks and Growth is also not being bought. Hedge funds are not chasing mega cap TMT, manifested through selling of semis for over a month now and selling of software over the past week. This means that two of the most important “leading” segments of the market are not feeling the love from the smart-money community.

JPM Position Intelligence team goes further: “The biggest pain trade appears to be a broad market decline that leads to more absolute losses, especially if Defensive outperform vs Cyclicals and Growth”.

 

 

The Shanghai Composite broke down beneath its mid-Cycle support at 3400.33, confirming the sell signal. A decline beneath the trendline at 3250.00 indicates a continuation to point 6 in the Orthodox Broadening Top.  The Cycles Model suggests the first stop in the decline may occur in the first week of May.  The estimated target appears to be 2900.00 – 2950.00.

11:15 am

ZeroHedge reports, “The ongoing decline in China’s credit impulse, which we have discussed extensively here in recent weeks, just made its latest appearance and the market was not happy.

Chinese stocks fell on Thursday, after the central bank underscored its intention to contain leverage and pursue policy normalization by adding just enough cash to maintain medium-term liquidity.

On Thursday, the PBOC injected 150 billion yuan ($23 billion) into the financial system on Thursday with its medium-term lending facility. That was slightly less than the medium-term lending facilities due in April even as liquidity is set to tighten this month, with 100 billion yuan due and 56.1 billion yuan of targeted loans maturing on April 25.

The PBOC withdrew a net 40.5 billion yuan of one-year funds in the first quarter, as policy makers address the twin challenge of a buildup in leverage while supporting the economic recovery from the pandemic. The tightening ricocheted through markets, with the main equity gauge falling from the highest in more than a decade while the benchmark money-market rate jumped to a three-year high in February.”

 

SPX futures beat yesterday’s high by three points this morning.  It remains to be seen whether the cash market will do the same.  A typical pattern may be that the hedgies and dealers set their algos loose in the early morning to see if they can get a rise out of the retail market.

ZeroHedge reports, “Despite a bevy of banks now warning that this is as good as it gets and a sharp market correction is imminent, nothing could spoil the markets party overnight, overnight we saw futures reverse a modest weakness and rebound back to all time highs as investors cheered solid earnings reports from companies including Bank of America and BlackRock and waited what should be a blockbuster retail sales report.

At 8:00 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 161  points, or 0.47%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 22.25 points, or 0.56%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 114.75 points, or 0.83%.

“We are probably entering the last stage of the pricing of the growth acceleration, and we see encouraging signs suggesting the ‘reflationary’ environment can continue and be supportive for risky assets in the near term,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by Alessio Rizzi wrote in a note. “Across assets we continue to prefer equity over credit, and favor a pro-cyclical stance within equity.”

 

TNX appears to have completed its retracement this morning at 15.90 on day 252 of the Cycles Model.  In other words, a turn may be imminent.  Should TNX rise above 17.00 in the next two days, all hell (literally) may break loose as options owners and dealers scramble through expiration to avoid losses.

Investing considers, “It will be gradual, with ample advance notice. And it’ll only begin once the economy has “fully recovered.” That, at least, is the plan for raising interest rates at some point in the future, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell explained late last month. The key question: Will the economy cooperate?

More specifically, will inflation remain sufficiently tame to permit Powell and company to slowly take away the monetary punch bowl?

“We are strongly committed to inflation that averages 2% over time,” the Fed chair says. “If it were to be higher or lower than that, then we’d use our tools to move inflation back to 2%.”

Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida also outlined the current plan for gradual policy tightening, explaining that the central bank is intent on leaving rates unchanged until inflation’s running at 2%. “We are not going to lift off until we get inflation at 2% for a year. … We are trying to tie our hands. We are saying we are not going to hike until we get to 2%.”

 

USD futures challenged the 50-day Moving Average at 91.50, then appears to have bounced, suggesting the new Master Cycle may be bullish.  If so, it has another 30 days to go for a Master Cycle high .  The target appears to be between the Cycle Top resistance at 94.88 and the Broadening Wedge trendline at 96.00.

 

 

 

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April 14, 2021

3:04 pm

Using the Cycle Top trendline as an Ending Diagonal, we may take a small (aggressive) short position here.  There’s a long way to go to get confirmation, so patience is still the key word.

ZeroHedge observes, “Having surged from an open at $381 to almost $430, COIN has tumbled back to $375…

And the moment COIN broke its opening print, US equity markets appeared to puke…

Is this really the market now? …as goes COIN, so goes US stocks?

Bitcoin also legged lower…”

 

8:10 am

Good Morning!

The Ending Diagonal has narrowed down to an impossibly thin space (24 points).     SPX futures have been confined to an even narrower space (4130.00 – 4139.00).  EW relationships suggest the final high may be near 4200.00.  Following that, a  breakdown may be imminent, just in time for options expiration.

 

VIX futures have dipped again, with a possible low at 15.70.  If so, VIX has a new Master Cycle low on day 246 of the current Master Cycle.  There is no surprise here.  VIX options/futures expire at the end of today.

Sven Henrich tells us, “m a very lonely voice in equity markets right now. Technically nothing has really surprised me yet, not the VIX crush to the February gap fill, nor the move toward the 4156 zone on ES, all of these were part of the risk spectrum since the beginning of the year. The only surprise here is the velocity of the prices, the complete lack of respect for any deviating correlations such as moves in the dollar and yields.

Everything continues to be ignored. But because things are ignored doesn’t mean they don’t matter.

Nothing matters inside of a bubble until it does. The phrase new paradigm is becoming ever more prevalent to justify prices and the tape. Truth be told, there is no new paradigm except this one: More artificial liquidity than ever and more debt spending than ever and as a result people chasing stocks into higher valuations than ever.

That’s it. There is no mystery.”

 

 

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April 13, 2021

9:55 am

NDX just made a new all-time high, confirming the Ending Diagonal formation in it, also.  It appears that the Cycle Top resistance at 14058.60 may be the stopper.  A nearby trendline (not shown) is at 14100.00.  Standby for some fireworks!

 

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures are down, making an overnight low of 4101.62.  We await the crossing of the Short-term support at 3997.28 (4000.00) for an aggressive sell signal, unless otherwise indicated by the VIX and Hi-Lo.  I have carefully considered all of the indicators (VIX, Hi-Lo, etc.) and have concluded that the end may be closer than we think.  This observation supports an Ending Diagonal, which has been camouflaged by all the stimulus and liquidity thrown at the market.  An Ending Diagonal may end this week.

ZeroHedge reports, “After trading flat for much of the overnight session in anticipation of today’s key event, the CPI report (due out at 830am ET), US equity futures and European markets tumbled at precisely 7am after a report that the US will pause Johnson & Johnson vaccines amid health concerns, potentially dealing a blow to efforts to reopen the world’s largest economy.

Futures on the S&P 500 fell and reopening sensitive Russell 2000 contracts lost almost 1% after the New York Times reported and FDA confirmed that the US would will call for an immediate pause in use of Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose coronavirus vaccine  after six U.S. recipients developed a rare disorder involving blood clots. All the six recipients were women between the ages of 18 and 48. One woman died and a second woman in Nebraska has been hospitalized in critical condition, the NYT reported.”

 

The Shanghai Composite just crossed beneath mid-cycle support at 3401.15, which doubly confirms its sell signal.  If my thesis that China equities will lead the decline is correct, this is a warning shot that the air is being let out of the bubble.

ZeroHedge reports, “Last Tuesday we reported that”China Credit Impulse Is Set To Collapse As Beijing Orders Banks To Curtail Loan Growth For Rest Of 2021“, and just a few days later we got the latest confirmation of this critical – for the global economy – transition.

Overnight, China reported that the sequential growth of total social financing (TSF) moderated in March following a strong rebound in January and February, with robust loan growth offset by a contraction in shadow lending.

 

As mentioned before, the NDX appears to be following the tech-heavy Shanghai Composite.  NDX futures are putting up a valiant struggle, but have not gone higher than 13833.00 in the overnight session.  I am sticking to my guns that the peak was made in mid-February and this secondary high is due for a collapse at any time.   The NDX may lead the domestic equities on their way down by following China’s lead globally.

ZeroHedge observes, “On one hand, the coming earnings season (77% of the S&P 500 market cap will announce results between April 19 and May 7) will be one of the strongest on record at least when measured on a Y/Y basis for the simple reason that Q1 2020 was the first quarter of the covid pandemic. On the other hand, as Deutsche Bank’s Binky Chadha writes, the sellside now expects impressive beats having lifted the bar high enough to where just mere “strong” EPS reports may not be sufficient (incidentally, consensus currently forecasts aggregate sales growth of 5%, margin expansion of 66 bps to 9.9%, and EPS growth of 19%. However, median EPS growth will be only 10%).  Finally, as Goldman notes, no matter how strong earnings are, they will not matter and instead all investors will care about is future guidance which however may be quite disappointing due to the recent surge in input costs which could lead to a big hit to projected profit margins.”

 

VIX futures appear to be consolidating within yesterday’s trading range.  Options expiration for the VIX is tomorrow and it may perhaps continue range-bound until options expire.

 

TNX hit an overnight high at 17.03 before pulling back.  With only a week left in the Master Cycle, it appears that the path of least resistance is down to the 50-day Moving Average.  Nervous investors in stocks may still think of treasuries as the primary “safe haven,” pushing down yields as they exit stocks.

ZeroHedge observes, “The Fed tipped its hand today, and unveiled its “viral reaction function” revealing the timetable according to which the Fed will start talking about QE tapering.

As discussed previously, James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television that getting 75% of Americans vaccinated would be a signal that the pandemic was ending, which is a necessary condition for the central bank to consider tapering its bond-buying program. According to our calculations, extrapolating current vaccination rates would mean that – all else equal – we could see the Fed’s 75% bogey be hit in just two short months.”

 

USD futures appear to be testing Intermediate-term support at 91.89.  Should the support hold, USD may end its Master Cycle at the Cycle Top at 95.02.  There are two weeks left in this session and a liquidation in the equities markets may find solace in the cash dollar.

 

Gold futures bounced this morning, but did not break out of yesterday’s trading range.  It appears that the April 8 high at 1759.40 was the end of the Master Cycle (day 248), unless something dramatic happens in the next week or two.  If my observation is correct, the next Master Cycle low is due in early June.  The whipsaws of the past nine months may give way to an utter collapse in that period, ,due to the multiple bearish formations.

 

 

 

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April 12, 2021

1:23 pm

The tension may have eased with the TNX today after a mediocre auction.  At least no sparks were flying.  The current Master Cycle ends on options expiration.  We may see a test of the 50-day Moving Average at 14.54 b then.

ZeroHedge reports, “Shortly after today’s first bond auction, the $58BN in 3Y notes which saw brisk demand at 1130am ET this morning, moment ago the US Treasury held the second coupon sale for the day when it sold $38 billion in a closely watch 9-year 10-month reopening.

This auction was less enticing to buyers, stopping at a yield of 1.680%, which was the highest since January 2020 and also tailed the When Issued 1.678% by 0.2bps.

The bid-to-cover of 2.36 was in line with recent auctions, which have averaged 2.39 in the past 5 months, if the lowest since December.

The internals were a little better, with Indirects taking down 59.6% of the auction, up from 56.8% and in line with the recent average of 60.0%. And with Directs taking down 16.2%, or the lowest since December as well, Dealers were left holding 24.2%, almost exactly on top of the recent average.

Overall, a mediocre, forgettable auction, however good enough to avoid a market puke, and certainly nowhere close to the devastation unleashed by the catastrophic, infamous 7Y auction at the end of February which started the March bond market turmoil.”

 

8:30 am

Good Morning!

Its funny how just a few points can make a big difference in the outlook of the Waves and Cycles.   SPX futures have faded this morning, but no significant moves yet. I cleaned up the chart to reflect more accurately what may be transpiring.  Minute Wave [iv] appears to be imminent.  Looking ahead, trending strength appears to peak at the end of this week, just in time for options expiration.   That suggests just a few days of weakness leading up to the final push higher.

ZeroHedge reports, “Global stock markets and US equity index futures dipped modestly with shares in Europe and Asia as traders weighed inflation risks, an uneven global recovery and the latest upbeat economic outlook from Washington. After sprinting to close at an all time high on optimism that vaccination programs and the easing of lockdowns to combat COVID-19 would bode well for an economic rebound, S&P 500 futures were cautious to start the new week as investors waited to see whether U.S. earnings would justify sky-high valuations, while a rally in bonds could be tested by what should be strong readings for U.S. inflation and another round of blockbuster retail sales this week.

MSCI’s All Country World Index was down 0.25% after the start of European trading, off Friday’s record high. The gauge’s price-to-earnings ratio is at its highest level since early 2010. At 07:30 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 43 points, or 0.13%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 5 points, or 0.13% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 38 points, or 0.27%.

 

VIX futures rose to a morning high of 17.52.  A move above 18.50 will cross above the trendline.  A good start.  VIX may be back to its role as a leading indicator as VIX may now rise as stocks are rising.

ZeroHedge asks, “Will the real consensus number please stand up?

Perhaps the most important question for equities in the coming weeks is what the “real consensus” is into Q1 numbers.

DataTrek: “The Street is looking for 24.5 percent S&P 500 earnings growth in Q1 2021 versus Q1 2020, but the market likely has its eyes set on something closer to 30-35 percent growth. Heres why:

Wall Street analysts have consistently guessed way too low in terms of corporate earnings since their trough in Q2 2020. The average quarterly beat since the pandemic lows has been 13 points”

Deutsche Bank is onto the same theme. Binky Chadha writes: “the consensus is for a modest 1.5% qoq sa growth, down from +27.1% in Q3; and +8.6% in Q4. From a top-down perspective, we note that this 1.5% growth in earnings is about the GDP growth expected by DBs economists in Q1, and looks too low considering a typical multiplier of 4x”.”

 

TNX rose above its Cycle Top support at 16.73, but slipped back beneath it.  With the current Master Cycle due to end in the next week or so, it is possible that it may end at a low (Wave 4).  This opens the possibility of TNX testing the 50-day Moving Average at 14.54 as a prelude to Wave 5.

 

USD futures slipped beneath mid-Cycle support at 92.19, suggesting a new Master Cycle low by mid-May.  A new high reaching the Cycle top has been relegates to an alternate status.  There is no sell signal until ASD crosses beneath the 50-day Moving Average at 91.44.

 

 

 

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April 9, 2021

4:30 pm

The panic bid in the last half hour set back the bearish view…at least until after options expiation.  The reason why is that Wave iii cannot be the smallest Wave.  By default, we may have just ended Wave iii at 275 points.  Wave i was 260 points.  What comes next is a pullback that may go as low as 4000.00 early next week…then a final blast into options expiration.  My guess is that this rally may end near 4250.00.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Including last Friday’s shortened day (during which futures were open around the payrolls print), Nasdaq has soared and Small Caps disappointed (especially notable given the spike in Small Caps on the jobs print). We must say we enjoyed the farcical ramp in the last few minutes of the day that sent ..

 

11:42 am

VIX made its Master Cycle low on day 241 of its current Master Cycle by making a low of 16.20, nearly matching the low made on February 21, 2020 at 16.19.  This extreme low is likely to be matched by an extreme high in May, according to the Cycles Model.

ZeroHedge remarks, “On the heels of yesterday’s warning that the VIX term structure was signaling potential trouble ahead, Bloomberg reports one trader place a huge bet yesterday that today’s calm will give way to a storm soon.

Source: Bloomberg

As we detailed yesterday, while spot VIX languishes complacently at pre-pandemic lows, Bloomberg notes, the middle part of the VIX curve that shows expectations for late summer and early fall tells a different story.

The spread between the VIX Index and implied 30-day volatility four months from now stands near the highest level since 2012.”

 

11:34 am

SPX is creeping up its Cycle Top support at 4094.84 this morning.  A dip beneath it may signal the tank is bone dry.  Things may be downhill from there.  The Daily Cycle Top support is very near the 2-hour.  An aggressive short position may be warranted beneath that level.

 

7:30 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures peaked at 8:45 pm (20.45 hours) at 4102.38.  This may have met the 5th Wave requirement for completion of this rally.  However, a secondary (lower) high in the futures may provoke yet another probe higher in the cash index.  The maximum level for Wave (v) is 4114.00, assuming the Wave structure is correct.  Today is day 282 in the value indexes, while the China/NDX indices are at day 266.  China (Shanghai Composite) may have already peaked on Wednesday.

 

NDX futures peaked at 13839 at 8:45 pm.  It has since gone negative, bolstering the idea that the peak may have been made yesterday.  We’ll know more at the open.

ZeroHedge remarks, “ech was hated only two weeks ago and everybody saw further downside. Fast forward 2-3 weeks, and the same guys are now telling us how great tech is.

Regular readers of TME know our latest logic on FAANGMs, which has basically driven the latest tech melt up (see here and here).

The long big tech logic played out well, but we are reaching the first big NASDAQ resistance levels here. This is not the time to get greedy, so it is time booking profits and possibly roll some call spreads higher in case NASDAQ has more short term legs. For the long stock people, we would look at replacement strategies here, basically switching from long stock to upside calls in case you think there is more upside in tech from here, but you make sure to monetize the recent melt up.”

 

VIX futures declined to 16.92 last night and appears to be hovering there this morning.  This may be giving us mixed signals as to the directionality of the markets this morning.

I’ll be absent for an hour or so, but may return near the open.

 

 

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April 8, 2021

3:30 pm

Will 4098.19 be the top?  The last half hour of the market day may bring in the sellers.  The two hour Cycle top acts like an Ending Diagonal trendline and is at 4085.58.  Aggressive shorts may be considered should SPX decline beneath that level.

 

1:15 pm

It appears that SPX may be going to 4000.00 after all.  Wave v of (v) of [v] of 5 is subdividing even more than I had anticipated.  It has one more lurch higher, then the decline begins.  Virtually no one is anticipating a turn this soon and the degree to which it may collapse.  I’ll be out for a while, but may come back before the close.

Best wishes!

 

11:04 am

The Daily Cycle Top resistance is at 4095.00.  It may be the final stop for this rally. while 4100.00 is looking less probable.  The car is running on empty, so it is hard to tell if the final bit of fumes takes it higher or not.

 

7:30 am

SPX futures reached a new all-time high of 4092.62 before easing down.  Should SPX rise to the trendline, it may reach 4100.00 or higher in the last Wave to completion.  Today is day 268 in the NDX/China Master Cycle, still in the normal range, while the SPX Master Cycle is in day 282.

ZeroHedge reports, “European stocks hit a new record highs on Thursday, buoyed by optimism in Britain over easing lockdown restrictions, while the benign outlook on US interest rates revealed in the latest FOMC Minutes where the Fed indicated it will maintain its commitment to supportive policy, helped push S&P futures to new all time highs after the cash index closed at a record on Wednesday. Treasury yields dropped, the dollar slipped and crude oil fell as the pandemic worsened in key regions just as OPEC+ prepares to add supply over the coming months.

At 7:30 a.m. EDT, Dow E-minis were flat, S&P 500 stock futures up 13.75 points or 0.34% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 122 points, or 0.89%. The S&P 500 and the Dow ended a choppy session near record highs on Wednesday, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq is still more than 3% below its February all-time high.”

 

The Shanghai Composite Index has pulled away from its Intermediate-term support at 3482.66 and is currently retesting that support.  It may be on an aggressive sell signal, provided it closes beneath that support/resistance line.

 

NDX futures rose to 13743.12 in a final probe to its Wave (2) high.  The Wave structure does not support a new all-time high as long as the china impulse is over.  The NDS may follow the turn in China by a day or two.  Liquidity is being drained as another highly levered hedge fund blows up.

ZeroHedge observes, “In the aftermath of the Archegos blow up, the biggest nightmare on Wall Street – where there is never just one cockroach – is that (many) more Archegos-style, highly levered “family office” blow ups are waiting just around the corner.

Well, in a transaction after the close that is sure to spark much heated controversy tonight and tomorrow morning, Bloomberg announced that JPMorgan was offering a 9 million block of Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) stock. Since this is virtually identical to what happened two Fridays ago when similar public BWICs by Goldman and other banks proceeded to unwind the Archegos portfolio, the immediate question on everyone’s lips is whether a second highly levered family office has blown up.

There are more similarities: the block offered by JPM is massive: the 9MM shares represents almost a quarter of ASO’s float and roughly 10% of ASO’s total outstanding shares.”

 

VIX futures declined to a low of 16.91, testing but not exceeding yesterday’s low at 16.87 thus far.  VIX is also responding to  the China/Tech impulse.  A rally above the trendline at 18.50 will put us on high alert for an aggressive buy signal.  Above the 50-day at 22.72 puts the VIX on a confirmed buy signal and a probable sell signal for the SPX/NDX.

 

TNX appears to have bounced off the Cycle Top support at 16.52 yesterday and may be on its way to its target near 19.71.

ZeroHedge comments, “On the rates front, the market tightened significantly after the FOMC statement but has recently eased back as hopes for Biden’s stimulus malarkey faded a bit…

Source: Bloomberg

With all eyes on the latest FOMC Minutes for any signs of The Fed walking back any of its unprecedentedly easy policies, we note that Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan warned today that “I do worry about excesses and imbalances,” adding that “failing to communicate Fed exit could stoke risk-taking,” adding that The Fed “should withdraw some accommodation once the pandemic is over.”

 

While USD futures are lower than yesterday’s close, there is evidence of a possible reversal off the mid-Cycle support at 92.24.  The current Master Cycle appears to be targeting its cycle Top at 95.26 by the close of options expiration.

 

The S&P Ag Index is on an aggressive buy signal while testing   mid-Cycle resistance at 388.06.  Once above it, and especially above the 50-day at 390.79 the signal becomes confirmed.  This is a very shallow Wave [2] with only a 23.8% retracement, testifying to the strength of this trend.  The next target appears to be over 600.00.  With China suffering a major food crisis and a drought of major proportions in the Southwest, food prices may skyrocket.  My family just pooled together to buy a half of a beef.

ZeroHedge reveals, “Scientists have begun using the term “megadrought” to describe the multi-year drought that has been plaguing the western half of the country, and now we are being told that it looks like 2021 will be the worst year of this “megadrought” so far by a wide margin.  That is extremely troubling news, because major water reservoirs have already dropped to dangerously low levels, some farmers have been told that they will not be allowed to use any water at all this year, and the dust storms in the western U.S. are becoming so large that they can actually be seen from space.  This is a major national crisis, and it is only going to get worse.

As you can see from the latest U.S. Drought Monitor mapnearly the entire western half of the nation is experiencing some level of drought at this moment.

But even more alarming is the fact that much of that territory is currently in one of the three most serious levels of drought

A year ago, about 4% of the West was in a severe drought. Now, about 58% of the West is classified as being in a severe, extreme or exceptional drought.”

 

ArmstrongEconomics reports, “People are unaware of the agenda with food and why Bill Gates has become the largest holder of farmland in the United States. There is a whole new agenda unfolding, and, of course, mainstream media has been bought off. Farmers in France and Croatia are standing up to EU policies. Farmers in France have even brought in tractors to combat the police. The goal appears to be to end traditional farming and ranching as we have known it. Europe is 100% under the control of the World Economic Forum and now has a new seed law that CRIMINALIZES traditional seed saving. They are using drones and satellites now to monitor all fishing in real-time.

Croatians are deeply concerned about the EU Ag Census, which takes total inventory of all food production — farms, animals, bees, anything — because it was only 1945 when Yugoslavia LAST conducted such a census prior to seizing control of all farms, transforming it into a state-run collectivized industry. The government then ordered all farmers off their land. The patterns are the same, which is reminiscent of the communist total takeover.”

 

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April 7, 2021

7:15 am

The Shanghai Composite appears to completed its Master Cycle on day 267.  The new Cycle has all the earmarks of a panic Cycle.  This is made even more probable should liquidity be curtailed.

ZeroHedge remarks, “One month after global markets underwent a brief hiccup after China’s top banking regulator said he’s “very worried” about risks emerging from bubbles in global financial markets, Beijing is now looking inward and as the FT and Bloomberg reported, China’s central bank has asked the nation’s major lenders – which are all at least partially state-owned which means it wasn’t ‘asked’ but rather ‘ordered’ – to “curtail loan growth for the rest of this year after a surge in the first two months stoked bubble risks.”

The report goes on to note that at a meeting with the People’s Bank of China on March 22, banks were told to keep new advances in 2021 at roughly the same level as last year. The directive targeted not only domestic lenders but also “some foreign banks” which were also urged to rein in additional lending through so-called window guidance after ramping up their balance sheets in 2020.”

 

NDX futures are also easing away from a lesser high, very similar to the Shanghai Index.  It appears that the Tech-heavy Shanghai and the NDX are tracking very closely and are influencing the US equities market.  The absence of liquidity in the Chinese market may have a knock-on effect in the US markets, regardless of the FOMC decisions.

ZeroHedge observes, “In its chart of the day, DB credit strategist Stuart Sparks writes that history teaches us that although investments in productive capacity can in principle raise potential growth and r* in such a way that the debt incurred to finance fiscal stimulus is paid down over time (r-g<0), it turns out that there is little evidence that it has ever been achieved in the past.

The chart below illustrates that a rising federal debt as a percentage of GDP has historically been associated with declines in estimates of r* – the need to save to service debt depresses potential growth.

As Sparks concludes, and this will probably get him kicked out of his favorite neighborhood club for confused Keynesians, “the broad point is that aggressive spending is necessary, but not sufficient. Spending must be designed to raise productive capacity, potential growth, and r*. Absent true investment, public spending can lower r*, passively tightening for a fixed monetary stance.”

 

SPX futures are flat, ostensibly awaiting the FOMC announcement.  However, as noted above, decisions being made elsewhere may have as much or more influence.  Note that the overnight volume on the US exchanges plummeted for the first time this year prior to the FOMC decisions being announced.

ZeroHedge reports, “Global stocks were stuck in a holding pattern on Wednesday at record high levels, with US equity futures unchanged from Tuesday’s close, as investors awaited details of the latest FOMC minutes. The 10-year Treasury yield reversed an earlier loss, while the dollar paused after a four-day slide.

While COVID case numbers rose in several parts of the world and geopolitical tensions between China and Taiwan and between Russia and Ukraine ensured it was by no means a fairytale, markets had a Goldilocks feel again with MSCI’s 50-country world index grinding out a sixth day of gains. Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fluctuated after the underlying gauges retreated overnight as volume on U.S. exchanges dwindled below 10 billion shares for the first time this year.”

 

VIX futures briefly plummeted to 16.87, finally filling the open gap at 17.08 left in the VIX a year ago.  It quickly bounced bac above 18.00.  This explains the subdued action of the VIX for the past few days.  It also implies either a new Cycle beginning at the July 10, 2020 high, or an early termination of the Cycle beginning on August 11 (see the chart).

 

TNX bounced to 16.74 tis morning after testing the Cycle Top support at 16.41. This appears to launch the final probe toward its target at 19.71 which may be due in two weeks.

ZeroHedge remarks, “he late Everett Dirksen, a long-serving Minority Leader of the Republicans in the U.S. Senate, is famously quoted as saying a billion here, a billion there, and soon we’re talking real money. That was back in 1969. At the time, a billion dollars was about one-tenth of 1 percent of GDP.

What about today? 

During 2020, the federal government provided a total of $3.2 trillion of Covid relief, starting with a mere $8.3 billion, then adding $104 billion, then adding $2.2 trillion, and finishing off the year with another $900 billion.

We’re now three months into 2021, and the federal government has provided yet another $1.9 trillion in Covid relief; and, the Biden administration has just asked for $2 trillion for infrastructure.

To put these amounts into perspective: A trillion dollars is today about 4 percent of GDP.”

 

USD futures made a new low at 92.20 in the overnight session before moving back to the flat line.  There is about a week left in the Current Master Cycle and the liklihood of a final probe to the Cycle Top at 95.34 is high.

 

 

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April 6, 2021

8:20 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures have dipped to 4052.62 this morning, not enough to call a reversal, but showing some exhaustion.  By coincidence, the Cycle Top support at 4034.50 is precisely at the Fibonacci target for this secular rally.  The first indication of a reversal les beneath that level while the trading channel trendline lies at 4000.00.  Should yesterday’s high be the top, the Cycles Model suggests a 17-day decline may ensue.  This high may also mark the end of a 252-month Cycle starting on March 23, 2000.

ZeroHedge reports, “Global stocks hit record highs on Tuesday, supported by strong economic data from China and the United States, although US equity futures slipped as concern China is curtailing loan growth tempered optimism stoked by the U.S. economic rebound.  Nasdaq underperformed as investors locked in some gains on renewed reflation concerns hopes while currency and bond markets paused for breath after a month of rapid gains in the dollar and Treasury yields. At 715 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 41 points, or 0.11%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 8 points, or 0.20% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 11.5 points, or 0.23%.”

 

VIX futures dipped to a low of 17.37 this morning.  It may be an effort to boost stocks in a tail-wags-the-dog back door effort to launch a momentum rally.  VIX may have already made its Master Cycle low last Thursday, but recognition of the Master Cycle bottom is  still dim.

 

NDX futures dipped to 13525.50 tis morning as it, too is nearing exhaustion.  There may be an attempt to reach the Cycle Top resistance at 13707.03.  Wave (C) equals Wave (A) at 13678.00.

 

TNX slid lower this morning but the weakness may be over as TNX rallies for the next 12 market days.  This may be the last straw for equities, as the potential target appears to be 19.71.

ZeroHedge observes, “One look at the S&P500, which closed today at a fresh all time high well above 4,000, suggests that after a period of rangebound trading and some modest quarter-end market jitters, traders once again don’t have a worry on their mind with even mega cap tech stocks ramping in recent days as concerns about reflation and higher rates are seemingly fading away.

Commenting on the market’s endurance and willingness to push higher even amid higher yields, Bloomberg’s Ye Xie notes that after a record services PMI, and nearly 1 million jobs added, “treasuries barely changed much over the past two days.” As he notes, “that perhaps suggests a lot of bad news for bonds is in the price. After all, the markets have now priced in four rate hikes through the end of 2023, when the Fed indicated it plans to keep rates unchanged throughout.” And with yields stalling, the dollar’s rally seems to also be losing some momentum (ironically, just as Goldman covered its dollar short), and as the DXY index is sitting right at the 200-day moving average. As for equities, Xie notes, “yield stability allows for some breathing room as stock benchmarks hit new records.”

He is right… the only question is how much longer with this yield stability persist. Because if Deutsche Bank rates strategist Steven Zang is correct, the next move higher in yields is on its way.”

 

USD futures hit a new low at 92.52 in the overnight session.  However, the pullback may be complete.  USD futures have a date with options expiration day, as that may be the end of the current Master Cycle.  The Cycle Top resistance at 95.43 appears to be the likely target, although it may go to the Broadening Wedge trendline.

ZeroHedge comments, “It may not be quite a “Thomas Stolper reco“, but the dollar reaction to Goldman’s announcement on Friday to close its long-running dollar short is certainly one that brings back a few memories of the infamous Kermit photo.

In a Friday note from Goldman’s Zach Pandl titled aptly “Tactical Retreat“, the bank’s chief FX strategist said that “after a choppy few months we are closing our recommended USD short trade, expressed vs a basket of G10 commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NOK, & NZD).” While we doubt Goldman’s trade reco was the catalyst, the Bloomberg dollar index has tumbled in kneejerk response, sliding to a two week low as US stocks soared on Monday, one day after the blockbuster payrolls report.”

 

West Texas Intermediate Crude futures bounced back to retest its 50-day Moving Average at 59.58 after falling through that support yesterday.  There appears to be an early Master Cycle low on March 23 at 57.25.  If so, we may have seen a flat correction that may lead to a substantial decline over the next month.  The outcome may be clearer by Friday, as a brief spike testing the Cycle Top may be due.

ZeroHedge observes, “After its exuberant rip on the day that the latest OPEC+ deal was announced last week, crude prices have collapsed, with WTI plunging back below $60, as reality sets in on what that supply surge really means (combined with Iranian output rising) and demand fears (as European nations lockdown and China demand lags).

The OPEC+ decision to gradually raise output “was contrary to some expectations that the group would take a status quo approach over the near-term,” said Robbie Fraser, manager, global research & analytics at Schneider Electric.

It also “suggests that members are both confident about a continuing demand recovery, and potentially cautious as U.S. shale looks to bounce back from 2020 losses.”

But the rise in OPEC+ output combined with concerns over Chinese import demand may be factors in Monday’s weakness.”

 

 

 

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April 5, 2021

8:20 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to an all-time high of 4033.88 this morning, just ticks shy of the long-term target of 4034.00 (see the Friday report).  Today is day 280 of the Master Cycle and the fruit is rotting on the tree.

ZeroHedge reports, “S&P futures surged and most Asian stocks climbed (Europe remains closed for Easter holiday) as investors digested Friday’s unexpectedly strong jobs report which showed the strongest jobs growth in seven months and could mark the beginning of the best annual economic growth in nearly four decades. Bond yields rose modestly after Friday’s spike, while the dollar and gold were both unchanged.

At 730am, Dow E-minis were up 226 points, or 0.68%, S&P 500 E-minis were up 23 points, or 0.57% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 59.75 points, or 0.45%.”

 

The Industrials made their (all-time) high at 33259.00 on March 19 thus far.  This morning the DJIA futures high was 33292.50, so it is possible that the all-time high may be this morning.  Wave [5] equals Wave [1] times Pi at 33255.82.  Perhaps this morning both time and target will be confirmed.

RealInvestmentAdvice comments, “n retail investing, do the “blind lead the blind?” Such was a question I asked recently about young investors who are “Long Confidence And Short Experience.” However, a recent survey by MagnifyMoney dug much deeper into the subject.

Our previous article’s gist is that throughout history, markets have a way of separating investors from their money. Such is the reason every great investor in history has one rule in common: “Don’t lose money.” The reason, of course, is that if you lose your capital, you are “out of the game.”

As I noted, the market’s current speculative behavior is not uncommon throughout history.

“Bubbles are characterized by extreme predictions, tend to dominate conversations and induce people to leave their jobs. The warnings of bubble skeptics get invariably met with scorn and derision.” – William Bernstein

Today, more individuals are searching “google” for how to “trade stocks” than at any point in history. (If data was available back to 1999, I am sure it would be similar.)”

 

VIX made its Master cycle low on April 1 at 17.29.  This morning VIX futures rose as high at 18.14 before pulling back.  In other words, VIX is not confirming the new highs in the SPX and DJIA.

 

TNX rose this morning, threatening a new breakout.  There is much debate regarding which level the TNX will affect the equities market.  The Cycles Model suggests that TNX may keep rising through options expiration.  The target appears to be 19.71, which may appear to be a threat to equities.

 

 

 

 

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April 2, 2021

9:55 am

The futures data feed was turned off at 9:14:48 am.  The cash market data feed has not been turned on due to Good Friday.  The 10-Year Treasury yield futures continues to rise to 17.23 at this time.

I would not be surprised to see the market open lower on Monday.

8:20 am

SPX futures reached an all-time high of 4037.62 (at 8:50 am) this morning as we wait for the March payroll report.

ZeroHedge reports, “While US cash markets are closed for Good Friday today, S&P futures continued their Thursday ramp higher, and after rising above 4,000 for the first time yesterday were last trading at 4,022, up 0.3%, ahead of the March payrolls data (preview here) expected to show the biggest increase in jobs in five months (and potentially much more). While cash bonds are open, most other markets were also closed for Good Friday.

As previewed yesterday, if it is a big outlier, the jobs report will likely roil the bond market as trading volumes will be extreme thin during today’s holiday-shortened session and all trades will be focused in rates as Treasuries will be the only asset open (until noon) while the New York Stock Exchange is closed today.”

 

VIX futures data feed has not been activated this morning.  The gap from   February 21, 2020 closes  completely at 17.08.  The daily Cycle Bottom is at 16.94.  The EW structure allows that both targets may be hit.  At the same time, the Master Cycle is stretched beyond the normal range of 241-258-275 days at 293 days!

 

TNX futures have risen to 16.98 after the jobs report.  The data feed to StockCharts apparently has not been turned on.

ZeroHedge reports, “It wasn’t quite the whisper number of 1 million jobs, but it was close: moments ago the BLS reported ago that in March the US added a total of 916K jobs, smashing expectations of 660K, nearly triple the original February print of 379K and was the strongest payrolls report since last August.

Developing”

 

Talk about being stretched!  SPX is in a throw-over position above the 1987 trendline and met the 2.618 Fibonacci Wave Relationship this morning.  Mission accomplished.

 

Here’s another Wave relationship that explains why the DJIA has not reached a new high this morning.  It already accomplished this feat on March 29.

 

 

 

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